Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2000

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS..BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS NORTH OF BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH DFW
METROPLEX THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTHWEST TARRANT COUNTY TO NEAR EASTLAND TO NEAR SWEETWATER
MAY BECOME ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO FORM ON...AS CUMULUS FIELD
IS BECOMING ENHANCED ALONG THIS LINE.  60+ DEWPOINTS SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD...AND MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE AN AMPLE SURFACE-
BASED MOISTURE SUPPLY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.  WILL
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS.

DFW 62/80/65/85 2322    ACT 66/84/67/87 4423

.FTW...SOME STORM POSSIBLY SEVERE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
       THIS EVENING AREAWIDE.

59

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-032200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.  THIS INCLUDES JACKSBORO...
LAMPASAS...PARIS...PALESTINE...WACO AND THE DALLAS FORT WORTH
METROPLEX.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF AN EASTLAND...HILLSBORO...ATHENS
LINE...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

AT LATE MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER...JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST.  THIS HAS PRODUCED
AN AREA OF RAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND HAS LEFT A
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG A BRECKENRIDGE...
SOMERVELL...ATHENS LINE. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.  THUS...THE BEST CHANCES
OF NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE REGION OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS.

MOST STORMS...IF THEY BECOME SEVERE...WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS OR SLIGHTLY LARGER...AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 70
MPH.  THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNSET...BUT OVERALL...THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS LOW.

FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA)...OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV (NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU (SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT (WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).

26

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...FORT
WORTH...DALLAS...TO TERRELL LINE.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
EASTLAND...DALLAS...FORT WORTH...WACO...CANTON...ATHENS...
WAXAHACHIE...AND PALESTINE.  OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS RESULTED
IN UNSTABLE AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
ACT AS AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONE SUCH BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ALONG AN EASTLAND...TO FORT WORTH...TO DALLAS LINE BY
MID AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...CAN
QUICKLY GO SEVERE.

THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT...
AND THIS WILL ALLOW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AREAS OF CLOUD
COVER FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE.  OTHER LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADOES WILL BE A WIND SPEED MINIMUM IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT TO A FEW SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
AFTER 7 PM. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  SPOTTER GROUPS NORTH OF
EASTLAND...HILLSBORO...TO TERRELL...CAN EXPECT POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.  SPOTTER GROUPS SOUTH OF EASTLAND...HILLSBORO...
TO TERRELL...CAN EXPECT POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AFTER 7 PM.

84/03