Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

WE WILL UPDATE ZONES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL.
A SQUALL LINE IS FORMING FROM WICHITA FALLS TO SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND THE LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  VERTICAL
SHEARS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.  THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD (HIGHER CLOUDS BASES...
AND MORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR COLD OUTFLOW) AND LACK OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST LOW CHANCES FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AT THIS
TIME.  WE WILL MONITOR THIS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE.

WILL END THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
BRING THUNDER INTO CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE EVENING.  ANOTHER UPDATE IS
LKIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.

.FTW...NONE.

26

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-152300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREA AFFECTED IS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WACO TO TYLER. THIS
AREA INCLUDES PARIS...SHERMAN...GRAHAM...STEPHENVILLE...AND THE
DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS
AND EASTLAND BY 500 PM. THIS AREA IS IN A BROAD AREA OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE BY 700 PM. THE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND AFFECT THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN 700 PM AND
1000 PM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY NOT AS STRONG...WILL
AFFECT THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 1000 PM...INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WIND. THE WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE SQUALL LINE SWEEPS EAST TONIGHT.

PERSONS INVOLVED WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP IN TOUCH WITH
LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE READY TO MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY WHEN STORMS THREATEN.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE 500 PM...AND OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER 700 PM.
OFFICIALS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS MAY HAVE A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AFFECT THEIR AREAS AFTER 1000 PM.

&&

...FOR OTHER AREAS...
FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU
(SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT
(WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND HAIL.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IN URBAN AREAS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
FLOODING OF ROADS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS LOW.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE DRY LINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO ABILENE TO SAN
ANGELO.  THIS LINE WILL REACH A MONTAGUE...EASTLAND LINE BETWEEN
830 AND 10 PM...AND A SHERMAN...FORT WORTH...TEMPLE LINE BETWEEN
1030 PM AND 1 AM.  AREAS FARTHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL BE
AFFECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

INITIALLY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS APPROACH INTERSTATE 35...THEY WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION AS THESE STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA.

&&

...FOR OTHER AREAS...
FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU
(SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT
(WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).