Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN DALLAS AND COLLEGE
STATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF WACO AND FORT WORTH...
BUT MAY AFFECT DALLAS.  WILL HAVE TO PUT A TEMPO SHRA IN THE DAL
TAF THIS MORNING AND WILL JUST VCSH IN WACO AND DFW.  EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING...INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS...OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST.  CEILINGS IN THE METROPLEX WERE VFR AT
11Z BUT EXPECT TO SEE THEM FALL TO MVFR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  #58

300 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000 PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS RIDGING HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THEN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THUS WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING IN...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH...AROUND 2
INCHES...AND WITH 88D ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY AREAS OF
OUR CWA...WILL AGAIN NEED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT ETA AND AVN
DID A BETTER JOB PLACING THE HEAVIEST STUFF YESTERDAY SO WILL FOLLOW
THOSE MORE CLOSELY AND EXPECT BRUNT OF RAIN AND STORMS TO BE OVER ALL
BUT NW ZONES TODAY. THIS SHOULD SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AS RIDGING AND
SOME DRYING OF THE AIRMASS TAKES PLACE. STILL...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS AS RIDGING HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR. WILL TAPER OFF POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE NEW MODEL RUN SHOW MONDAY WITH A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE. WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
THANK;S SJT FOR COORD.  #80

DFW 87/74/89/74 7431    ACT 88/73/90/73 8431

.FTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BOWIE...TO STEPHENVILLE...TO COMANCHE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-112045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY OR
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

A MOIST...TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY.  THIS ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THE
GROUND ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA IS SATURATED...OR NEARLY
SATURATED...FROM RAINFALL DURING THE PAST NINE DAYS.  THUS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BOWIE...TO
GRANBURY...TO COMANCHE LINE.  RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1/2 INCH...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES.  THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU (SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...
SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT (WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).