Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2000

DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A NEED TO OVERSTATE THE OBVIOUS. PLENTY OF LIFT
IN THE AREA WITH VERY HIGH POPS IN PLACE FOR TNGT. OVERALL FOLLOWED
AN ETA/AVN SOLN. WAA SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY N AND E OF THE CWA
ATTM...WITH MUCH OF SW SD/NEBRASKA CAPPED. SIGNIFICANT COOLING
700-500MB EXPECTED TO EASILY BREAK CAP THIS EVENING WITH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING TSTMS EXPECTED. SPC 20Z RISK OF SVR WX AND DISCUSSION
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT FSD IS SEEING. WITH CAA AND SUBSIDENCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PCPN SHOULD END FM NW TO SE TNGT.

12Z ETA HINTING OF FOG OR LOW STATUS BY LATE TNGT AND THU MRNG. NRLY
WINDS AND SPEED NOT VERY CONDUCTIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT WL
MENTION PSBLTY OF LO CLOUDS. WHILE MDLS ARE PRETTY DRY...WITH UPPER
LVL TROF TO THE NE AND COOLER TEMPS ALF EXPECT TO SEE CU EASILY FORM
DURING THE DAY. MOS/FAN NOT TOO BAD IN TEMPS...WITH A BLEND USED IN
THE PKG. IN THE EXTENDED FCST PKG...MAINLY SAT AND MON WL BE BEST
CHC FOR SVR WX WITH TEMPS ABOUT STATUS QUO. TSTMS MON INTO TUE COULD
BE VERY INTERESTING WITH SIGNIFICANT NW CONUS TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

.FSD...NONE

BR

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2000

*** THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PERTAINS ONLY TO CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ***

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
MOVE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA AROUND SIOUX FALLS EARLY TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WILL CLASH WITH THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW
SEVERE OR HEAVY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

SDZ038>040-052>056-MNZ071-072-080-081-097-170500-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-LINCOLN-LYON-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-
MOODY-PIPESTONE-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HURON...BROOKINGS...PIPESTONE...SLAYTON...
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2000

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SDZ050-057>067-MNZ089-090-098-IAZ001>003-170500-
BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-ROCK-NOBLES-JACKSON-
GREGORY-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN-LYON-OSCEOLA-
DICKINSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERLAIN...MITCHELL...SIOUX FALLS...
LUVERNE...WORTHINGTON...ROCK RAPIDS...SPIRIT LAKE...
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2000

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.
  HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM.

SDZ068>071-IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-170500-
BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY-UNION-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-DIXON-DAKOTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YANKTON...SIOUX CENTER...SPENCER...
LE MARS...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2000

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LwARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.
  TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
  HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM.

RSR