Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2000

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 15, 2000Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 15, 2000, 4:12 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2000, 4:12 PM MST (23:12 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2000, 4:45 PM MST
In force
33 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2000-08-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 183 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2000-08-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -34 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
183 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-343 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2571 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 152314
SVRFLG
AZC025-152345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
412 PM MST TUE AUG 15 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CAMP VERDE...COTTONWOOD-VERDE VILLAGE

* UNTIL 445 PM MST

* AT 412 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMP VERDE...MOVING
  NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO...
  I-17 AT 420 PM
  9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORNVILLE AT 440 PM MST
  3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHERRY...7 MILES SOUTH OF COTTONWOOD-VERDE
  VILLAGE AT 445 PM MST

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.
$$
LAT...LON 3430 11169 3452 11156 3476 11195 3458 11213

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE AUG 15 2000

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PARTS OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE NGM/ETA AND THE AVN MODLES. THE AVN KEEPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WHILE THE ETA/NGM MOVE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING IN THE PACIFIC THINK THE AVN IS HANDLING THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE BEST AND THAT IS HOW THE FORECAST WILL BE
WEIGHTED. FLOW AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDENSDAY FOR A NEAR REPEAT OF THE WEATHER ON TODAY. FOR THURSDAY
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ON WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -7 TO -8 DEGREE C RANGE
WITH NEAR ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
BASED...DRY LIGHTNING TYPE OF DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WETTEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST. ON THURSDAY MID TO UPPER
INVERTED TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO (ASSOCIATED WITH ONCE
TROPICAL STORM BERYL) WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. EXPECT MCS
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE MOIST
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT MOISTURE VALUES OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
OVER THOSE LOCATIONS.

IN THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND AND LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 15, 2:47 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai28 min
Aug 15, 3:12 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino33 min
Aug 15, 4:27 PM MSTTornado WarningFGZYavapai33 min
Aug 15, 4:56 PM MSTTornado WarningFGZYavapai19 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2000Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2000

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.