Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2000

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 11, 2000Coconino County, Gila County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 11, 2000, 3:45 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2000, 3:45 PM MST (22:45 UTC)
Expired
Aug 11, 2000, 4:15 PM MST
In force
30 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2000-08-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2000-08-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 63 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2176 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

010 
WUUS55 KFGZ 112245
SVRFLG
AZC005-007-025-112315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST FRI AUG 11 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN ARIZONA
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN ARIZONA
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 415 PM MST

* AT 345 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER STRAWBERRY...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF PAYSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  OVER PINE AT 350 PM MST

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.

$$

LAT...LON 3449 11138 3449 11160 3416 11162 3416 11135

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 11, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 11, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 11 2000

SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ALONG THE MOGOLLON...RIM WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS
SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER
AND IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE MIDWEST. MORNING SOUNDING
DATA SHOWED A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN THE
MID TO LOWER LEVELS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WAS PRESENT WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS GENERAL SHEAR PROFILE
CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS IS FAVORABLE TO
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WILL WEIGHT
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE MODELS ARE PROMISING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WITH SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION) CAN FIND LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OVER NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL HAVE THE TOUGHEST TIME
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. WILL GO ISOLATED
OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT SCATTERED IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

IN THE EXTENDED...SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD WITH A MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS ARIZONA. STILL THINK THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...NONE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 11, 9:58 AM MST, 5 hours 47 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-102030-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU AUG 10 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HAIL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND GUSTY WINDS REQUESTED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF FOCUS TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI
COUNTY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SUNNY SKIES
WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL STRENGTHEN. THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AS MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 57 MPH...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OR RUNNING WASHES. WHEN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEGINS...IMPORTANT LIFE SAVING INFORMATION WILL BE
PROVIDED IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS
...AND FOLLOW-UP STATEMENTS.

MCCOLLUM
Special weather statement, Aug 11, 11:15 AM MST, 4 hours 30 minutes before
TTAA00 KFGZ DDHHMM
AZZ004>018-037>040-112130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1115 AM MST FRI AUG 11 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HAIL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND GUSTY WINDS REQUESTED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF FOCUS TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI
COUNTY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SUNNY SKIES
WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL STRENGTHEN. THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AS MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 57 MPH...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OR RUNNING WASHES. WHEN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEGINS...IMPORTANT LIFE SAVING INFORMATION WILL BE
PROVIDED IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS
...AND FOLLOW-UP STATEMENTS.

MCCOLLUM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 11, 12:28 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Gila32 min
Aug 11, 12:46 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Gila, Navajo29 min
Aug 11, 1:32 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai28 min
Aug 11, 2:06 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2000Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2000

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.