Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2000
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2000, 3:05 PM MST for Gila County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 31, 2000, 3:05 PM MST (22:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 31, 2000, 3:35 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
Counties Gila County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -541 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2590 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
489 WUUS55 KFGZ 312205 SVRFLG AZC007-025-312235- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 305 PM MST MON JUL 31 2000 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN ARIZONA EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 335 PM MST * AT 305 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY... ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF PAYSON...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3420 11135 3430 11138 3428 11180 3406 11175
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 2:30 PM MST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:30 PM MST, 35 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST MON JUL 31 2000 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN EASTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING TODAY...AND WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SETTLING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA...WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US IN A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THEN...KEEPING MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHWARD. STILL NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERALL TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE RIM...COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS. COLD AIR...MINUS 7C...AT THE 500MB LEVEL SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP US UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR DECENT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NOT A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF A GULF SURGE REACHING THIS AREA IN THE NEAR FUTURE. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED...WITH ANY MOISTURE INCREASE SLOW TO OCCUR. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. KREITNER .FGZ...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 35 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-302030- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST MON JUL 31 2000 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVIY BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM... SPOTTER REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS REQUESTED. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF NEW MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. COLD AIR... MINUS 7C...AT THE 500MB LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP REGION UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO START AROUND NOON ALONG THE RIM AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LOWER LYING AREAS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP EVERYWHERE ELSE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OR RUNNING WASHES. WHEN HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEGINS...IMPORTANT LIFE SAVING INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS ...AND FOLLOW-UP STATEMENTS. KREITNER
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 10:08 AM MST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-302030- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST MON JUL 31 2000 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM... SPOTTER REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS REQUESTED. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF NEW MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. COLD AIR... MINUS 7C...AT THE 500MB LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP REGION UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO START AROUND NOON ALONG THE RIM AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LOWER LYING AREAS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP EVERYWHERE ELSE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OR RUNNING WASHES. WHEN HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEGINS...IMPORTANT LIFE SAVING INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS ..).AND FOLLOW-UP STATEMENTS. KREITNER
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 3:26 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 49 min |
| Jul 31, 4:07 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 33 min |
| Jul 31, 4:31 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 59 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2000Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2000
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.