Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2000

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS PCPN. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER MAJORITY OF CWFA WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN N PART OF CWFA. KMVX HAS SOME SHRA AND TSRA
BASICALLY IN S AND EXTREME E PARTS OF CWFA. LATEST MSAS SFC PRESSURE
ANALYSIS HAS LOW CENTERED BETWEEN BIS AND JMS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG A JMS-GFK-HCO LINE. WHEN COMPARING CURRENT
MSAS SFC PLOT TO MODELS...ETA AND AVN BOTH CLOSE. MODELS MOVE SFC
LOW SE THROUGH SE ND INTO CENTRAL MN BY 12Z TUE...PULLING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH IT. WITH PLENTY OF HEATING NOW OCCURRING IN AREA OF
-7 TO -10 LI'S IN NORTHERN ND...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
AND GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN POOLING ALONG AND BEHIND SFC
LOW AND FRONTAL AXIS...EXPECT TSRA TO GET GOING IN MOT TO DVL AREA
(AS THE CAP HAS DISSIPATED IN THIS AREA)...AND MAKE THEIR WAY E-SE
THROUGH CWFA OVERNIGHT...AND STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SECOND THROUGH FOURTH PERIODS IS TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR TUE AND WED...AS COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL STICKING TO THEIR GUNS WITH
POSITIVE PNA (WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROUGH) 5H LONGWAVE
CONFIGURATION PATTERN ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. PERIODIC PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH OFF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BC COAST SHOULD RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL APPEARS BEST CONVECTIVE SHOT
SLATED FOR FRI-SAT TIME-FRAME THUS...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM CURRENT
CONTINUITY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN PERIOD SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO COOLING TREND NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON BACKSIDE OF ONTARIO PROVINCE/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH.

.FGF...NONE.

NG/BERG