Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT WED APR 19 2000

VERY INTERESTING AND VERY CHALLENGING FCST.  BEHAVIOR OF DRY LINE
AND CONVECTION INITIATION CERTAINLY THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES.  PAST 4
HOURS HAVE SEEN VERY IMPORTANT CHANGES IN FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY
WRT TO DRY LINE POSITIONING.  DRY LINE CAME CHARGING THROUGH ERN KS
LATE THIS AM AND THEN GROUND TO A HALT AS IT MOVED THRU KC METRO.
PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER WESTERN KS AS DEEP UPPER LOW
WOBBLES EWD ALONG NEB/SD BORDER.  WITH PRES FALLS TO OUR
WEST...WINDS IN DRY AIR ARE NOW BACKING AND EWD PUSH OF DRYLN HAS
NOW ALL BUT STOPPED.  18Z RUC IS SIMILAR TO 15Z RUC WHICH GAVE FIRST
HINT THAT DRYLINE WILL ACTUALLY RETREAT AFTER SUNSET.  AM
INCREASINGLY LEANING TOWARD RUC SOLUTION...WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR STJ AT 06Z.  STOUT CAP ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING
PER 18Z SOUNDINGS...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INHIBIT
CONVECTION INITIATION UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING.
BIG CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS ACCAS/HIGH BASED TSRA THAT HAVE
RECENTLY POPPED UP AND EVEN HAVE HAD A LTG SRIKE WITH THEM.  BOTTOM
LINE HERE IS THAT WILL CARRY CAT POPS IN ERN ZONES...CHC WEST.
CERTAINLY WILL INCLUDE SVR RISK FOR ERN COUNTIES GIVEN STRENGTH OF
WIND FIELDS...AND INSTABILITY.  PROBABLY WILL KEEP SVR OUT OF KC
ZONES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDER HERE.

NEXT PCPN CHALLENGE IS JUST HOW HARD TO HIT WRAP-AROUND POPS FOR THU.
NERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE BEST BET FOR PCPN AND WILL STAGGER HIEST
POPS FROM NE TO SW.

TEMPS SUPER TRICKY.  WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT/SFC LOW...WILL
GO ABV GUIDANCE LOWS IN EAST TONIGHT...NR GUIDANCE IN WEST.  ERN
ZONES TEMPS TRICKY AGAIN FOR THU...DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT.
POSSIBLE SERN ZONES COULD HEAT UP TUE MORNING BEFORE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.  FOR NOW...WILL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
FCST.  FWC LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH ON ITS DEWPOINTS FRI AM AND
CONSEQUENTLY LOWS AS WELL.  SHOULD HAVE NICE SUNNY DAY FRIDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN AND SFC HIGH ON TOP OF US.
PREFER WARMER FWC FRI.

MRF AND CANADIAN SHOW ANOTHER WAVE IN SRN STREAM BY LATE SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER SRN PLAINS.  IT'S BEEN
PRETTY DIFFICULT TO GET PCPN AROUND HERE LATELY AND WITH FMR POPS
BELOW CLIMO...WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  SOMETHING TO WATCH.

.EAX...NONE

JM