Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2000

NOTHING CLR CUT EXCP FOR CONTD HEAT IN WRN THIRD OF CWA. WK AND
POORLY DEFINED BNDRYS TO CONTEND WITH IN VERY UNSTBL AMS. ERYR
QSTNRY FNT OVR NRN MO NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SFC DATA. STLT DATA DOES
SHOW ELEVATED AC IN APRNT WAA ZONE FM NRN KS/SRN NE ACRS ALL BUT NRN
CWA. LCL RADARS SHOWG SOME WK RETURNS IN NRN KS. MODELS FCST AREA OF
UVV INVOF I-70 THIS EVE AND BASED UPON FRI EVE CNVTN S OF EAX CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD STORMS POPPING UP WITHIN THIS WAA ZONE BTN 22Z-02Z.
WILL COVER THIS WITH LOW CHC POPS.

FTHR N WK CDFNT PUSHING S THRU CNTRL IA. OVERALL MODELS HVG DFCLT
TIME RESOLVING THESE WK LT SUMMER FEATURES. ETA/NGM/RUC ADVERTISE A
FNT MOVG INTO NRN MO LTR TNGT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO SEE SOME CNVTN
DVLP ALG IA FNT TO GET FNT INTO NRN MO. AMS IS QUITE UNSTBL S OF
THIS BNDRY WITH SFC BASED LIS ARND MINUS 10 OVR SRN IA. STGST NWLY
FLOW AND DEEP LYRD SHEAR PROGD FOR NE MO SO WILL GO WITH SLTGLY HIER
POPS THERE. ISOLD SVR PTNL MAINLY TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING EXCP NE MO
WHERE BTR CHC FOR MORE ORGANIZED SVR COULD KEEP SVR PTNL ALIVE TILL
LT EVE. FWC GUID MINS A TAD TOO COOL.

ANY FTN WHICH RCHS MO RVR OVERNGT WILL LIKELY RETURN NEWD TMRW AS
HOT AMS OVR KS PRESSES EWD AGAIN. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVR
CNTRL CO WHICH MODELS TRK EWD ACRS SRN NEB/NRN KS. THIS FEATURE MAY
WELL INTERACT WITH NEWD RETURNING WRMFNT SO WILL INTRO CHC POPS FOR
ALL BUT SW CNTYS. FWC/FAN MAX TEMPS CONT TO BE TOO COOL IN THE W.
FAVOR ETA/AVN SFC TEMPS IN AWIPS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING INTO SUN
EVE OVR NE 1/2 OF CWA.

MON LOOKS HOT OVR THE WRN CWA WITH NO BNDRYS TO AFFECT TEMPS. WILL
CONT TO GO ABV GUID WITH HOTTEST SPOT SHIFTING TO NW MO.

EXTDD PROGS HINT AT A WK FNT MOVG INTO NRN MO TUE NGT. HOT DOME
SHIFT NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN PLAINS BUT CONTD WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS OVR
CWA. WILL KEEP EXTDD PKG DRY FOR NOW.

.EAX...NONE.

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2000

...HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 105 OVER
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...

FORECAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN100 AND 105
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA SOUTH TO BUTLER...
CLINTON AND MOUND CITY KANSAS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SOUTH OF
A ST JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE LINE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND SAG SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT REACHES INTERSTATE 70
BY MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALSO
DECREASINGLY RAPIDLY AFTER 9 PM.

JULY