Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
410 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2000

CD FNT AT 2000 UTC APPRS TO BE JUST S OF EMP EAX IRK LN. IMPRESSIVE
TEMP CONTRAST AHD OF BHD FNT AND SGFNT BRK IN THE HEAT ON THE WAY.
MVMNT OF FNT HAS BEEN A TAD SLWR THAN THINKING FM PRIOR TWO FCST
PKGS BUT LTL OR NO CHGS WERE MADE IN TEMP FCST. FCST CONCERN FOR
TNGT IS PCPN THREAT. RUC HAS DONE WELL IN KEYING IN ON KINEMATIC
DEFORMATION ZN OVR SE NE. IR LOOP STILL SHWS COOL TOPS BUT 88-D
RETURNS AND SFC DATA INDICATE NO PCPN REACHING GROUND. LEFT CLDS IN
FCST WITH NO MENTION OF PCPN THIS EVNG ACR NW ZNS. FNT MVG THRU NE
MO ATTM WHICH IS WHERE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY SITS SO LEFT
CHC POPS FOR ISOLID THNDR THIS EVNG. FTHR TO S CD FNT BEGINING TO
LIGHT UP 88-D OVR XTRM SE CWA WHICH IS SW TAIL OF AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AXIS. TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEG OF 100 THIS PM IN THIS AREA
AND WITH LWR DEW PTS CONCERNED THAT SCT HIGHER BASE CNVTN MAY RESULT
IN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TSTM WNDS. CROS-SECT FCST DATA SHWS A MORE
SHALLOW FNTL SLOPE THAN FCST BY YESTERDAYS MODEL DATA. SO CONCERNED
THAT POST FNTL PCPN THREAT MAY LINGER A GOOD PART OF TNGT IN SE CWA.

MODELS SHW KINEMATIC DEFORMATION ZN SHEARING APPART THRU EVNG HRS
ACR NRN NRN MO BUT FRONTOGENTIC INDUCED DEFORMATION(AS DEPICTED BY
DVRGNC OF QN FIELDS) FCST BY MODELS TO HOLD ITS GROUND OVR CNTL AND
ERN MO WELL INTO 0600-1200 UTC FRI TIME FRAME. WV LOOP SHWS MORE MID
LVL MSTR AIMED AT THIS AREA OF CONCERN FM MONSOONAL TELECONNECTION.
WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE WENT WITH CHC POP THRU ALL OF TNGT
SE ZNS.

CROS-SECT DATA SHWS CAA NOT AS STOUDT ACR CWA SO USED RANGES UPWRD
ALL ZNS WITH COLDEST NUMBERS FCST OVR NW MO. XPTD SUNSHINE ON FRI
AND CAA BECMG NEUTRAL THINK THAT TEMPS SHLD REVOCER TO NR 80 OR
BETTER MOST ZNS.

MODELS SHWS STG LWR TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS AND PROGRESSIVE SHRT
WV TRACKING ALG TOP OF DISPLACED UPR RDG FOR SAT OVR CWA. WITH
AFOREMENTIONED MONSOONAL TELECONNECTION STILL IN PLACE STAGE MAY BE
SET FOR A GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED SOAKING RAIN WITH PSBL
EMBEDDED ELEVATED CNVTN. MODEL CROS-SECT DATA SHWS ELEVATED
POTENTIAL ABV 750 HPA ON SAT WITH SGFNT MID TROPOSPHERIC MSTR INFLW.
INTRODUCED CHC POPS ALL ZNS. WITH XPTD CLD CVR AND PCPN THREAT
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ALL ANS BY A CAT OT TWO.

MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SVRL MORE MONSOONAL FEATURES FOR NEXT WK SO
INSERTED PCPN THREAT MON/TUE TIME FRAME AND TRENDED TEMPS BACK TWRDS
NRML.

.EAX...NONE.

BODNER

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

FORECAST...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MACON TO
MARSHALL TO CLINTON. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD BE REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE THE THREAT AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MACON TO CARROLLTON TO HARRISONVILLE TO
PAOLA.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF KIRKSVILLE TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE.
WIND PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WEEKEND...LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS A
RETREAT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE REGION.

DB