Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
125 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2000

...MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HEAVY RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES...

INTERESTING JULY PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
VERY HOT CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF KS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT VERY
DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NE.  UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NEARLY SQUASHED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. OF MOST CONCERN IS THE VORT
CURRENTLY PULLING OUT OF EASTERN CO.  ALREADY SPARKING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.  WITH DECENT BAROCLINICITY SETTING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS
SUSPECT VORT MAX SHOULD WIND UP PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT AND SWING AN
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CWA. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
LOOK MARGINAL AS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND 500MB TEMPS FAIRLY WARM.
HOWEVER...CAPE SHOULD BE VERY HIGH WITH MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING
AND GOOD HEATING.  WILL ALSO NEED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN OVER
NORTHERN ZONES.  THE 17Z SURFACE MAP HAD THE COLD FRONT FORM CENTRAL
MN THROUGH FSD TO AROUND BFF. ANOTHER WARM/STATIONARY FRONT OVER
NORTHERN KS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO WITH UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
SOUTH AND 70S NORTH.

OVERALL...AVN AND ETA HAVE APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION BEST
LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THEIR SOLUTIONS. MOIST AIR IN
PLACE WITH PWAT PROGGED TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PULL
INTO NORTHERN KS THIS EVENING CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS.  WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS TO LIKELY IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY OVER ALL OF CWA MONDAY.
TEMPS TO BE TRICKY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE. NO NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO AWIPS PROBS. PRECIP SHOULD SUPPRESS BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING PRECIP WITH IT.  WILL THROW CHANCE
POPS INTO SOUTHERN GROUPING.  OLD GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN ZONES SEEMS
A BIT WARM AS LATEST ETA SHOWING LOW 60 DEW POINTS INTO NORTHERN
CWA...THUS WILL UNDERCUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MO BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP CONTINUES.  SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL CUTS ACROSS CWA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
EXPECTED.  MANY TIMES MODELS DO NOT PUSH THE BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT SO FEEL SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP. TEMPS AGAIN TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS LOW AND MID 80S. WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY DOWN CLOSE
TO 60 IN IRK.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE CWA.  AGAIN
HAVE TROUBLE LEAVING ANY DAY DRY AS TIMING WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW VERY DIFFICULT.  WILL COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
DETERMINE.

.EAX...NONE.

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