Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
131 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

...MAIN CONCERN NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM AIR IN PLACE AT ALL LEVELS WITH SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINING.  06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POSSIBLE WEAK BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NW MO THROUGH ABOUT CDJ
TO NORTH OF STL.

MODELS ALL INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ASVERTISED TO BE
HERE A FEW DAYS AGO WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA.  WHAT
THIS WILL MAINLY ENTAIL IS THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR WITH A VERY WARM COLUMN
OF AIR.  BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TODAY FROM THE LAST COUPLE WILL BE THE
LACK OF MCS DEBRIS.  MODELS AND LATEST IR LOOP STILL HINTING AT SOME
RESIDUAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND TODAY BUT WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN.  THUS...WITH 850MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST FEW
DAYS WOULD THINK HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...EVEN THOUGH
A FAIRLY MOIST GROUND FROM THE RAIN OVER THE LAST MONTH EXISTS.
FEEL THAT THE FWC A LITTLE COOL AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS LATEST ZFP AND
FAN GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ETA HINTING AT A CONVECTIVE VORT MAX MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
CWA AND THIS IS HANDLED IN THE LATEST ZFP.  AVN AND CANDIAN APPEAR
TO WANT TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACIVITY TO OUR NORTH BUT CANNOT
SEE A SOLID REASDON TO REMOVE THE POPS...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE
LATEST ETA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY.  RIDGE
APPEARS TO PUMP UP ENOUGH THAT ALL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE FAR
NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
EITHER SO HOT AND HUMID.

.EAX...NONE

18

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER MAP DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT
AREAS NORTH OF A ROCKPORT MISSOURI TO MOBERLY MISSOURI LINE.  THERE
IS A MINOR THREAT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY SOUTH OF
THIS LINE WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. NO
RELIEF APPEARS TO BE IN SIGHT WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE MISSOURI IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A CAP
PROHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
IT TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

88