Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

FCST CHALLENGES:  TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOCATION OF TSRA
INITIATION THIS AFTN...DURATION OF SHRA AND TSRA TONIGHT

VI LOOP SHOWS ENHANCED CU FIELD STRETCHING FRM NE IA INTO NW MO
INADV OF SFC CDFNT THAT WAS ALIGNED FROM OAX THRU GCK. WSR88D
NETWORK SHOWING SCT POST FRONT SHRA ACRS NE AND CTL NE.  NO SEEING
ANY SIGNS OF STG FNTL CONVERGENCE WITH SFC DATA...WITH FAIRLY
UNIFORM SFC WND FIELD ACRS ALL CWA.

MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION OVR NW CORNER OF CWA BY 00Z. SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND FCST LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE.  THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WND FIELD SUGGEST MAIN
WX THREAT WL BE WND AND SOME HAIL.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM SHEAR
VECTORS BOTH HINT THAT XTRM NW MO MAY SEE A CPL ROTATING STORMS...
BUT FAVORABLE SPD AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WONT LAST TOO LONG AS FNT
PROGGED TO SURGE SEWD. BEST UVMS PROGGED TO OCCUR INADV OF FNT
THUS...SVR POTL WL BE CONFINED TO EVENING HOURS ACRS NRN ZONES
BUT... MAY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN THE SE.  NONETHELESS...WL GO
WITH HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF CWA TONIGHT.

UPR FLOW SUGGESTS FRONT MAY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF CWA.  WL KEEP
CHC POPS GOING ALNG SRN STRIPE OF COUNTIES DUE TO THEIR PROXIMITY
TO STALLED FRONT.  MOST OF CWA WL DRY OUT EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
AS UPR SUPPORT SCOOTS NEWD...ALL OF CWA SHULD BE DRY BY FRI AFTN.
APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPR SYSTEM IN NW FLOW WL ENHANCE ISEN LIFT
AND WAA LATE FRI NITE.  AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW SCT SHRA AND TSRA
MAY DEVELOP BUT...THINK MAIN FOCUS WL BE FURTHER NORTH ACRS IA AND
NE. PRVS FCST HAS CHC FOR SCT TSRA/SHRA ON SAT BUT SHORT TERM
MODELS NOT GENERATING ANY PCPN FOR CWA.  MAY WAIT FOR ANOTHER
FCST CYCLE BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OF POPS.

MUCH WELCOMED COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI NITE.
PRVS FCST NUMBJERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. TEMPS TONIGHT MAY BE A LTL COOL
BASED ON GRIDDED TEMPS AND MAY BUMP UP A CAT.

WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS...FCST STILL LKS DRY AND TEMPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

.EAX...NONE.

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KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

FORECAST: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 6 PM ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 FROM
BETHANY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA AND BETWEEN
7 AND 9 PM FURTHER TO THE EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS TONIGHT. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35 AND LINGER UNTIL 2-4 AM IN LOCATIONS TO THE EAST. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE SPOTTER
ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FUEL FOR THUNDERST]ORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.

BODNER