Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
237 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AT 500H ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF U.S...WITH SHARP SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS...A CLOSED
LOW OVER VANCOUVER...AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1009 LOW WAS OVER RST...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
DSM TO MKC...AND A 20 DEGREE TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS FRONT.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 500H WITH THE ETA HAVING THE EDGE ON
THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE.  THE ETA WAS ALSO THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT AND TROUGH.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS GO-ROUND IS THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS PRECIP ON DAY 3/SUNDAY.

THE ETA/NGM/AVN AGREE ON PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA AND TO THE
SOUTH BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  AT 48 HOURS...MODELS AGREE MODERATELY WELL AT 500H ON PLACEMENT
AND DEPTH OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN DVNS
WEATHER IN THE 72 HOURS TIME FRAME.  AT THE SURFACE...ALL HAVE A LOW
JUST WEST OF RAPID CITY WITH THE NGM AND AVN BEING CONSIDERABLY DEEPER
THAN THE ETA.  LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY.  MRF...AND 12Z AVN RUN...SHOW COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EUROPEAN...UK...AND
CANADIAN DOWNPLAY THIS SCENARIO...AND INSTEAD HAVE A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WELL SOUTH.  WILL STICK WITH MRF/AVN SCENARIO...SINCE
12Z AVN IS THE NEWEST RUN.  ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON
500H WAVE MOVING EAST MONDAY...AND A HIGH BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH CID BY 00Z AND DVN BY 003Z...MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY...WITH A 1029 HIGH CENTERED OVER DBQ FRIDAY NIGHT.  SATURDAY
WILL SEE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PULLING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
IT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MAY SHADE TEMPS UP A
NOTCH FRIDAY PER NEW FWC/FAN GUIDANCE.  OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ON
TRACK.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

ARKELL

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-012300-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
146 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK IS A SLIGHT RISK...WHICH INCLUDES THE REST OF EASTERN
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

AT 1 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...ROUGHLY
JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM DECORAH TO MARSHALLTOWN TO DES MOINES TO
CRESTON.

A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING AND LIFT TO ERODE THE CAP...RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM WEST OF A
LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO CEDAR RAPIDS TO FAIRFIELD. VARIOUS PARAMETERS
SUGGEST INITIALLY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUTICELL IN NATURE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.
AS THE STORMS EVOLVE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST...WIND PROFILES SUGGEST
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE OR SEVERAL BOW
ECHOES...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WIND
SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TORNADOES. HOWEVER...
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL
LINE.

WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OF LATE...THE GROUND IS FAIRLY SATURATED NORTH
OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WITH MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS NEAR
BANKFULL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF...RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

AMATUER RADIO OPERATORS...STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED IF ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MCCLURE