Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
955 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2000

ONGOING CONVECTION AND TRAINING ECHOS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM HERE
TONIGHT.  MOST REPORTS HAVE BEEN HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS...LSR
WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

LAPS ANALYSIS AND METARS SHOW A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG I69.  THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS WHILE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES REMAIN DOMINANT TOWARD THE THUMB.  88D IS
SHOWING STORM TOTAL PRECIP GREAT THAN 7 INCHES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
PROBABLY CONTAMINATED WITH HAIL.  MOST LIKELY A COUPLE OF INCHES
FELL (LOCALLY HIGHER) WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES STILL BELOW
THAT ( > 4 IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NEAR 4 IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD).  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE MIDNIGHT
CREW.

UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT AND SHORT TERM WEATHER EFFECTS.
ADDED FOG AS MANY OBS ARE REPORTING HAZE/FOG ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS
WITH PREVIOUS PRECIP.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DOING THIS ALL OVER
AGAIN FRIDAY AS SAME UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION.  SHOULD BE
INTERESTING TO SEE THE AMOUNT OF SUN WE GET...LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FOR FRIDAYS CONVECTION.  IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE MESOETA ARE CORRECT (CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG, LI/S NEAR -5 AND
TT/S AROUND 50) THEN MORE SVR IS EXPECTED.

LOOKED AT LAMP GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ALL SEEMS IN LINE.

.DTX...NONE.

BGM

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
838 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINING WITH SEVERAL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING MANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.  MANY AREAS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY DID
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY AND WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT... THIS COULD EXAGGERATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN
THIS REGION.

AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN
10 AND 15 MPH.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL MOVE EVEN
SLOWER AND AT TIMES REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.  A BRIEF WIND GUST TO
40 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.  RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY HIGHER...WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...
FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES.

BGM