Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

EXPECT STRONG STORM ACTIVITY TO END THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS OF FORECAST THEN BECOMES POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DIGS IN
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LOW BECOMES STACKED AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL PA AND NY THROUGH SUNDAY. TOMORROWS
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ON THE STABLE SIDE GIVEN POSITIVE
LIS...LOW CAPES...AND DECENT CAP AT 700 MB. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY MOIST. ETA PULLS ALL PRECIPITATION OUT BY MORNING WHILE
NGM/AVN HOLD PRECIPITATION FOR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT LOWER POPS A BIT AND REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

EXTENDED...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED LIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL GOING WITH MRF/ETAXX SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS FROPA
TUESDAY...THOUGH DPROG/DT OF BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE MOVED
TIMING UP A BIT TO A TUESDAY MORNING PASSAGE. FRONT ALSO APPEARS TO
BE DIVING MORE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING A STRONGER GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE MORE DISTINCT WIND/TEMPERATURE SHIFTS WITH THE FROPA THAN
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
CWA...MAKING IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL WITH FRONT A BIT QUESTIONABLE. WILL
ALSO MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWE|RS FRIDAY DUE TO SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
THE NORTHEAST.

.DTX...NONE.

GROVER COSTELLO

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-150600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 25 MPH AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN DETROIT
METROPOLITAN AREA AFTER 2 PM AND THE REST OF THE DETROIT AREA AFTER
3PM...AND THE ADRIAN AND MONROE AREAS BY 4 PM.

HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY WITH THE SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR PREFERRED LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLET... FOR FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES.

COSTELLO