Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000

WILL UPDATE ZONES MAINLY TO REFRESH CURRENT WORDING AND TWEAK WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY.

VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS POPPING UP WEST OF
SOUTHEAST MI. GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM/LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT BUT WHAT SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL POP UP...ENDING BY SUNSET
WHEN DYNAMICS WILL HAVE PIVOTED ON THROUGH AND THERMODYNAMICS HAVE
WANED.

WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 THOUSAND FEET SUPPORT HAIL
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT PEA SIZED AND POSSIBLE HALF INCH
HAIL. WIND SHEARS ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR ANYTHING VERY ORGANIZED...BUT
CELL DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR SO. PC BASED
LIFT PROGRAM PRODUCES CAPES THIS AFTERNOON IN EXCESS OF 2000 
JOULES...AFTER INPUTTING IN LOW TO MID 70S TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.DTX...NONE.

DWD

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1139 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REQUIRED.

HEATING FROM THE STRONG JUNE SUN WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...PEA SIZED HAIL IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER. IN
ADDITION...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM...AND WILL
HAVE ENDED BEFORE 8 PM. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE
EAST AROUND 25 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

DWD

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS
OCCURRED.

HEATING FROM THE STRONG JUNE SUN WAS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AT 3 PM. MOST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LARGER HAIL...AS LARGE AS ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY 5 PM...AND WILL HAVE
ENDED ALTOGETHER BEFORE 8 PM. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAGA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

DWD