Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1135 AM EDT THU APR 20 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVES AROUND MOVEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CURRENT ZONE FORECAST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. SHORT WAVE ENHANCING
LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ATTM IS PULLING NORTH. CONSIDERING THE
LOCATION OF THE JET...THE MODEL PUSHING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...EXPECTING STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...IN THE REGION OF
BEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CAPE. WITH EXPECTED WARM FRONTAL
LOCATION THE AREAS SOUTH OF NM59 WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OR FEW SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FOR ADJUSTED
AFTERNOON WORDING.

.DTX...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT LAKE HURON.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC, MI
1103 AM EDT THU APR 20 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 AM    1 E BRITTON               MI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/00   LENAWEE                        REPORTED BY POSTAL
                                          OFFICIALS

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-210000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
220 PM EDT THU APR 20 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL NEAR AN INCH IN
DIAMETER.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS
EVENING.  MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION SOUTH
AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL.  IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M 59...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE CHIEF THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE HAIL TO
AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...SO PERSONS SHOULD MOVE INDOORS
WHEN THUNDER IS NEAR OR OVERHEAD.  ALSO...DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA
CAUTION AS BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND DRIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR ANY STANDING WATER.  KEEP ABREAST OF THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...ORR
YOUR LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION STATION.

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