Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND MCS FOR THIS
MORNING...THEN STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FOR THIS MORNING...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN CWA...WITH A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITION. THE THICKNESS PATTERN ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS THE MCS CROSSING WESTERN
LOWER WILL CROSS MOST OF CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG TONGUE OF 700 MB
THETA E ADVECTION SEEN IN ETA.  WITH AREA POSSIBLY TAKING A SOUTHEAST
TURN ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTIAL CLEARING TREND WITH GOOD WAA SOUTH OF FRONT.
CURRENT DEWPOINTS ON SURFACE ANALYSIS IN REGION WHERE AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING FROM ARE RUNNING 65 TO 70 RANGE...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
IN THE MID 70S AT 4Z THERE. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST CAPES...AND LOWER
LIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING TO HINDER
WARMING SOMEWHAT...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA TO BRING UP THE READINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON. FWC'S LOOK REASONABLE...BUT WILL TEMPER THEM DOWN
SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING COOLING RAIN. BETTER DYNAMICS THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING
AS 850 JET SLIDES EAST AND STRENGTHENS. ETA PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWS
KINK IN ISOBAR PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...INDICATIVE
OF A LINE OF CONVECTION. THIS LINE IS IN THE REGION OF BEST 700 MB
LIFT...AND 850 TO 700 THETA E ADVECTION. AGAIN THIS AREA IS BEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AT 6Z. HENCE...BEST CONVECTION IN CWA
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF WHICH CROSSES CWA IN 05 TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. WILL
TAPER OFF CONVECTION INTO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER JET PASSING EAST ACROSS LOWER
SATURDAY...WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CLOUD PRODUCTION...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL FOR PRECIPITATION.

.DTX...SVR WATCH 268 IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z ALL SOUTHEAST LOWER.

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***THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT
HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD).  PLEASE
COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM
(ALL LOWER CASE).  THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE
A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU.  IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A
PAPER VERSION OF THE SURVEY...CONTACT DICK WAGENMAKER AT 248 625
3309...EXTENSION 766.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.***

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-121200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1215 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AND A CHANCE THAT THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AND SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THIS TIME.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE HAIL...TO QUARTER
SIZE...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EVOLVING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF I 96...TiO INCLUDE BRIGHTON...FARMINGTON
HILLS...ROSEVILLE AND POINTS NORTH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...
FOR THE VERY LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

OKEEFE

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-121200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STAEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
240 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WATCH 268 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH 8 AM EDT...

DISPATCHERS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8
AM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...WITH HAIL OF DIME
SIZE OR LARGER AND WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER. THE WATCH COVERS THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

LENAWEE         LIVINGSTON      MACOMB          MONROE
OAKLAND         ST. CLAIR       WASHTENAW       WAYNE
BAY             GENESEE         HURON           LAPEER
MIDLAND         SAGINAW         SANILAC         SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA

THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF MIDLAND...BAY
CITY...SAGINAW...BAD AXE...FLINT...PORT HURON...DETROIT...ANN
ARBOR...AND MONROE.

ONCE AGAIN...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER
MAY OCCUR. PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD...BE SURE TO MOVE INSIDE IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE.
WHILE INDOORS...STAY AWAY FORM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER INFORMATION ON THE POSSIBILITY
4OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

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