Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1120 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2000

TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE INITIALLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING, BUT
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWS SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF SOUTHERN PORTION
OF MCS TO THE NW WITH SOME ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL LOWER W OF SAGINAW
BAY AND SOME BETTER DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS WI WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LM AND NORTHERN
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS
COMES AROUND BASE OF VORT MAX AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL LOWER BY 00Z.
SURFACE DEWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD YIELD AS MUCH AS
2500 J/KG. MODELS PROG DECENT LOWER CONVERENCE/UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER
LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT STORMS.
CAPE/SHEAR VARIABLES ALSO SUGGEST SOME SEVERE CELLS AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MORNING ZONE UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND GO WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER AS APPEARS THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY. MORNING
PACKAGE TEMPS AND WINDS LOOKED GOOD.

.DTX...NONE.

JW

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1146 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

JW

MIZ047-048-082100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1211 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 660 IN EFFECT FOR MIDLAND AND
BAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 660 FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM.
SOME COMMUNITIES IN THIS WATCH ARE BAY CITY...MIDLAND AND
PINCONNING.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...
GENERALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
40 MPH AND MAY AFFECT MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES AFTER 200 PM EDT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JW