Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
307 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2000

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH STORM POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ALPENA TO MILWAUKEE...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. 88D INDICATING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER...EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAGINAW BAY AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN CWA LATER THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
THROUGH CWA AROUND 06Z...THOUGH ETA IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
FRONTS PROGRESSION.

COMPETING FACTORS FOR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST. BEST UVV ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN PART OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 250 JETLET WILL ALSO PLACE SOUTHERN CWA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AIDING THE 700 MB OMEGA. HOWEVER...ONLY THE TIP OF THE
THUMB HAS SEEN MUCH SUN TODAY...TEMPS IN SOUTHERN CWA HAVE ONLY
REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 70 UNTIL FROPA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WEAK THETA E RIDGE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE OUT OF CWA WITH FROPA. BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE LINE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. IT IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND CELLS ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON ITS SOUTHERN END. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH AREA THAT HAS SEEN THE MOST SOLAR
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AGAIN...BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH...HOLDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT NEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP
AS AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY LESSENS AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.

CONSIDERED POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT LOOKING
GOOD. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BECOME EXTREMELY DRY. THE CWA WILL
ALSO HAVE A HEALTHY CAP AROUND 700 MB THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS/POP CU BUT
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW.

EXTENDED...FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. MAIN FOCUS LIES IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND. MRF REPLACES 500 MB TROUGH
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND. BEST MOISTURE HELD TO OUR NORTH
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
COULD TRACK INTO CWA LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED THICKNESSES FAVORABLE FOR SUCH MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...700
HEIGHTS AND 850 WINDS COUNTER THIS POSSIBILITY. MRF IS ALSO SLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF SURFACE DISTURBANCE. ETAXX IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. NCEP ENSEMBLES LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE
WITH THE WEEKEND SOLUTIONS...WITH 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY. CANADIAN HOLDS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF SURFACE
FEATURE FURTHER NORTH...DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW THAN INDICATED IN
THE OTHER MODELS JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...OFFERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SURFACE
HIGH PROGGED TO AFFECT REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.DTX...NONE.

GROVER FIGURSKEY

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-031200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1125 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SOME SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE.  A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING WAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TO
ABOUT THE SAGINAW BAY AND MIDLAND AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THIS WILL
HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO
FLINT TO OWOSSO. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9
PM.  THE THREAT...IF STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE...WILL BE FOR HAIL UP
TO THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM PORT HURON TO FLINT TO OWOSSO.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...IT WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SWING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD STILL BE STRONG BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

ALL THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 25
MPH.

KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AS YOUR LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...AND CABLE
TELEVISION STATIONS.

DRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC, MI
1205 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0648 AM    3 NW SWARTZ CREEK         MI   .75 INCH HAIL
08/02/00   GENESEE                        PUBLIC REPORT

0910 AM    ALGONAC                   MI   .75 INCH HAIL
08/02/00   ST CLAIR                       PUBLIC REPORT

DJF