Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
145 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2000

MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN IN MARGINAL AREAS OF SHORT
RANGE FORECAST IN RELATION TO FRONTAL LOCATON.  THEN IN EFP PDS
MODELS SHOWING DRIER TRENDS WITH TIME THO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE RUNS
CHC THRU ENTIRE PD.

ALL MODELS CLOSE IN SOLUTION WITH UPPER LO MOVING THROUGH MN/WI IN
ERY FCST PDS.  TRAILING TROF MOVING THROUGH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AT LEAST WORTH GD CHC TNGT MUCH OF CWA THO NC AND NW SHULD REMAIN
DRY.  LOOK AT Q VECTORS/FRONTOGENSIS 850/700 LVLS SUGGEST SRN HLF OF
ST HAS BEST SHOT AT MORE WX THIS EVENING.  DEEP MOISTURE AND LI -8
TO -12 ALONG WITH VERY HI CAPES.  ATTM REDVLPMNT ALRDY STARTED IN W
CNTRL IA.  BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO LAY ACRS SRN IA WITH FURTHER DVLPMNT
ON THU WITH REST OF ST HI AND DRY.  AVN PCPN FIELDS LOOK BEST FIT
THO NOT MUCH DISAGREEMENT WITH MESOETA/NGM AS S/W MOVES UP ALG IA/MO
BORDER.  FRI AND SAT DRY OVR MUCH OF ST THO SRN TIER IN DOUBT.  SAT
NGT S AND E.  SUN REAL QUESTIONABLE AS IS MON WITH S/W FINALLY OUT
OF THE AREA.

TEMP GUID LOOKS REASONABLE.

.DSM...NONE

FORSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0840 AM    AMES                      IA   4 INCH HAIL
07/26/00   STORY                          REPORTED BY MEDIA KCCI
                                          TV. HAIL WAS 2 INCHES
                                          WIDE AND 3 TO 4 INCHES
                                          LONG.

0930 AM    AMES                      IA   .88 INCH HAIL
07/26/00   STORY                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0930 AM    GREEN MTN                 IA   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/26/00   MARSHALL                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

1042 AM    NEWTON                    IA   .75 INCH HAIL
07/26/00   JASPER                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR ABOUT A MILE
                                          NORTH OF I-80 AND A
                                          HALF MILE NORTHWEST OF
          '                                HIGHWAY 14.