Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT.

THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. SPC MODERATE RISK AREA RUNS FROM WALKER TO
DLH TO RHI. AGREE THAT THIS AREA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE. ISOLATED STORM NOW FIRING IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO GET GOING RIGHT AWAY...BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A BUSY
NIGHT. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

WILL GO WITH THE ETA...WHICH INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MORNING.
ETA/MESO APPEAR TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE AREA OF CONVECTION. ETA
FORECASTS A SURGE OF HIGH PW AIR (1.88 INCH) TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK PVA SHOULD ALSO
PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THE AIR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH LI OF -12C ON MSAS AND
WEAKENING CAP.

WILL CARRY THE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE EVENING AND ELABORATE ON MAIN
THREATS. NEXT PROBLEM IS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER BRD AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
TONIGHT. AREAS JUST NORTH OF THERE REMAIN SATURATED FROM NEARLY 4
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT...AND WITH LOW FFG VALUES...DECIDED TO
CARRY IT THIS FAR WEST. MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN HAS A PRETTY SERIOUS
THREAT OF FLOODING. MANY AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING ALREADY FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENT.
WILL ALSO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.

THINGS IMPROVE AFTER TONIGHT...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING. MAINLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ETA SURFACE TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR REASONABLE...AND HAVE FAVORED OVER
FWC/MAV TEMPS.

.DLH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MN ZONES 33>36 AND 38...WI ZONES 3...4
       AND 6>9 TONIGHT.

DAP

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-082000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY...

THREAT...
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MODERATE RISK FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM WALKER TO DULUTH TO RHINELANDER. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
WALKER...BRAINERD...AITKIN...DULUTH...SUPERIOR...PINE
CITY...SPOONER...HAYWARD AND PARK FALLS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT AND MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. A WARM FRONT
INCHING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WITH HUMIDITY MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE TROPICS...AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FAIRLY EXPLOSIVE. LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE RESULT. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOORS PLANS...YOU MAY WANT TO START THINKING ABOUT
SAFETY PLANS NOW. THE TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT
CAN BE ESPECIALLY DESTRUCTIVE...AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAP