Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

80 TO 90KT 300 MB JET ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL AND VORT CENTER ARE HELPING TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ATTM. AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES...THIS WILL HELP TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. TRENDS FROM
PROFILERS IS SHOWING THE 850 LOW AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED DEW PT FEED
ALSO BEING PUSHED EASTWARD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
CLEAR MY NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY ISSUANCE TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS MOISTURE FEED IS STILL GOOD THERE WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TO WORK WITH. AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA TO SEE
IF ANY MENTION OF STORMS EARLY MAY BE NEEDED.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE AND CENTER OF
APPROACHING UPPER COLD POOL IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD. CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THIS COLD
POOL...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE LACKING AS
LOWER DEW PT VALUES WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE COLD FROPA. WILL CARY VERY SMALL POPS TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS
TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

WITH LESS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...LOWER DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST OR NORTH...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE LOWER THAT THOSE
EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. FWC NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART REFLECT THIS
THINKING IN ALL BUT THE P28 AREA. THERE I WILL UNDERCUT FWC BY A CAT.

SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TEMPS...WILL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER FAN NUMBERS GIVEN NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIR AFTER TONIGHT/S
FROPA IN THE AREA. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWEST AS THE LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO ESTABLISH. LOWS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE AREA COULD BE WINDIER THAN THE FWC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
BOTH AVN AND MRF 850 WINDS ARE PROGGED IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE.
USUALLY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS USUALLY PICK UP FASTER
THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES. GIVEN THIS...WILL ADD A
/BREEZY/ QUALIFIER TO SUNDAY/S WEATHER.  ALSO...WILL NOT GO AS HOT
AS THE FWC NUMBERS. BOTH AVN AND MRF 850 PROGGED NUMBERS DO NOT
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 RANGE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION....

THE GENERAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...ALTHOUGH THE USUAL
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDES AND TIMING OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW ARE EVIDENT. ALL OF THE MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK WITH
MEAN TROUGHS 120-125W AND NEAR 80E. THIS EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT
THAT IT WILL OCCUR.

THE CURRENT EXTENDED WILL BE MODIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY AS EXCEEDINGLY WARM AIR
SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MRF ONCE
AGAIN IS ADVERTISING H7 TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 16 DEGREES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL
VERIFY SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THOSE VALUES, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT.

SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL OCCUR
BY MID WEEK, AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY MINOR
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE WAVES AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL WARM POOL IS
SUBSTANTIAL, AND THE MENTION OF RAIN WILL NOT BE ADDED TO THE
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ABOUT
THURSDAY, AGAIN CAPPED BY EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT. OTHER THAN
SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 056/082 056/092 060 2-0
GCK 054/083 052/092 059 200
EHA 054/085 052/094 057 200
LBL 056/084 054/092 058 200
HYS 058/080 056/088 062 220
P28 062/085 060/090 063 220

.DDC...NONE.

19/01