Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND POPS ALL PERIODS.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED EXITING 120KT JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A 110KT MAX DIVING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
250 MB MAP ALSO HAD 80KT SOUTHERN BRANCH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. 500 MB
TROF WAS LAYING FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH 110 M HEIGHT FALLS AT KREV. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
WERE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL IOWA. STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT AT 700 MB FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WEST INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH +14C 850 MB DEWPOINTS FROM NEAR KOMA SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN TEXAS. 18Z SFC MAP HAD COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM LOW NEAR
KOMA THROUGH DDC TO CO/NM BORDER. ETA AND AVN HAVE A MUCH BETTER
HANDLING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME AND WILL FOLLOW THEM MUCH CLOSER
THAN THE NGM FOR THIS PACKAGE.

AFTER BEING STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS, THE FRONT IS
STARTING TO MAKE GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE REACHED THE LOW TO MID
60S. MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR P28 AND LATEST CAPE ESTIMATIONS VIA CAPS
HAVE OVER 2000 J/KG FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT NEARING THIS
AREA AND CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY 19Z, WILL KEEP CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS MUCH BELOW THIS MORNINGS
LEVELS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AND AROUND
60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

STRONG WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET TO HELP DIG
THE LONGWAVE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. MID AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SKIES NEARLY OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SEEN TODAY
IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS MUCH NEARER TO MAV/FAN
NUMBERS THAN FWC. WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA,
DON'T SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THINK GOING
SPRINKLE WORDING MAKES SENSE.

STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LINGERING UPPER ENERGY BECOMES IN
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING COULD BE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES WOULD THUS BE MINIMAL. FOR
NOW, THINK ENOUGH PVA WILL EXIST TO GENERATE WHAT LITTLE LIFT WOULD
BE NECESSARY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH THE NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND WILL GRADIENT POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOESN'T APPEAR TO SUPPORT MENTION OF
DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE TEMPS GENERATED BY THE AVN CONTINUE
TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE AND WILL GRADIENT THEM IN A SIMILAR PATTERN
TO POPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GOING EXTENDED LOOKS VERY REASONABLE, SO NOT MUCH WILL BE CHANGED
THIS CYCLE. UPPER VORT MOVING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS
REASONABLE, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH UPPER
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WEAK LEESIDE TROFFING
DEVELOPING, WILL GO WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. WITH
HUDSON BAY LOW THE MAIN PLAYER INTO NEXT WEEK, HAVE LITTLE REASON TO
ARGUE AGAINST ANOTHER COLD FROPA DURING THE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THIS IDEA IS ALSO REFLECTED IN CURRENT FORECAST,
SO I WON'T CHANGE THIS EITHER.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 052/058 044/051 042 --3
GCK 050/055 042/050 040 -14
EHA 050/055 041/049 040 -13
LBL 052/056 043/050 042 -13
HYS 047/053 039/048 037 114
P28 061/066 050/058 044 302

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/MCCAMMON