Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2000

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN CWA DISSIPATED BY NOON.  SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER SE COLORADO AND AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
FROM SE COLORADO THRU SW KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTN, SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.  MID LEVEL VORT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CO/KS BORDER.

H250 ANALYSIS SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT JET IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA WITH
THE NOSE OF A 70KT JET EXTENDING INTO THE MINNESOTA.  H500 SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER KS/CO BORDER.  RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL US AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF CALIFORNIA COAST
BEGINNING TO PUSH ON SHORE WITH 60M HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.  H850 SHOWS THE WARMEST AIR CENTERED OVER MONTANA WITH A WARM
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS.  THERE IS
A FRONTAL ZONE FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SE THROUGH IA AND IL.  LOTS
OF MOISTURE AT 850 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS IDENTIFIES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS
NE KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  DO NOT EXPECT THIS FRONT TO
ENTER MY CWA.  LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION WITH LOWER TO MID
60S DEWPOINTS.  MODELS SUGGEST LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW.
FORECAST DILEMMA FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE HOW MUCH OF CWA WILL BE
EXPOSED TO TSRA AND TEMPS FOR TOMORROW.

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN CWA INTO TONIGHT.  THEREFORE, TONIGHT WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST, 50, AND GRADUALLY DECREASE TO THE EAST
WITH 40 IN THE CENTRAL CWA, 30 IN THE NORTH AND 20 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.  WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS FOR THE WEST AND TAPER THEM OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MRF WAS THE DEEPEST AND DEVELOPED A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF WAS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS TODAY AND AM
CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION GIVEN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARM AND DRY
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH
TO NEAR KANSAS AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINS. WILL
ALSO KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING FOR MID WEEK GIVEN THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND LOCATIONS OF SFC BOUNDARY.

AS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...VORT LOBE REMAINS NEAR WESTERN KANSAS,
ALTHOUGH WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. INSTAB PRESENT AS IS
SFC BOUNDARY SO WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR SAT PM. WILL CURRENTLY
STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR NOW, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/092 068/095 068 433
GCK 066/092 067/093 067 433
EHA 065/091 066/093 066 534
LBL 067/095 068/097 068 534
HYS 068/096 070/096 070 322
P28 071/099 072/102 072 222

.DDC...NONE.

COLEMAN/REITER/BURGERT