Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2000

PESKY MID-LEVEL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DYING. CONVECTION WAS VERY HIGH
BASED, AND NOT MUCH PCPN REACHED THE GROUND. ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH SURFACE WARM TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL VORTS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
TRYING TO GO OVER EASTERN WYOMING, EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. CU ALSO FIRMING UP ALONG BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF
CWA, AND LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS, CURRENT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING INTO CWA PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER, SHOULD STORMS GO ALONG
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BOUNDARY, THEY MAY GET INTO EASTERN CWA TONIGHT.
AGAIN, LACK OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS A PROBLEM FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ALSO, WITH THE MID-LEVEL GARBAGE THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY, WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THAT FOR JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME, ESPECIALLY WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LRS REMAINING OVERHEAD.
UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT I CAN FIND NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM FWC
NUMBERS FOR POPS. SO, I WILL PLAN TO SHOTGUN LOW POPS FOR ALL
COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY, ANY OUTFLOW THAT'S GENERATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WASHOUT, AND THE CWA SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, HIGHS
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BULK OF VERY HOT AIR JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. AGAIN, WILL SHOTGUN LOW POPS EVERYWHERE BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION GETTING TO CWA FROM THE VERY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER WARM BASED ON INCREASED WAA, SO WILL GO
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS. OF SOME CONCERN IS THAT THE
EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN
TEXAS MIGHT MAKE A MOVE MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME, PUTTING IT CLOSE
TO THE CWA. ALBEIT SMALL, WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOTGUN MORE LOW POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

COORD W/ICT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A MEAN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. FMR NUMBERS ARE A BIT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH NO
AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN SHORT
THIS FORECAST WILL BE FOR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND PURE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS AND POPS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/093 068/096 069 222
GCK 067/094 \067/095 068 222
EHA 067/095 067/099 068 222
LBL 069/096 069/100 070 222
HYS 069/092 068/093 070 222
P28 071/093 070/098 072 222

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON/JOHNSON