Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND TEMPS ALL PERIODS.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED DOMINANT HIGH OVER ARIZONA WITH LOW
STACKED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. BEST HEIGHT FALLS IN THE VICINITY WERE
AT OMA WITH 40 M AT 7H AND 5H. 8H TROF WAS EXTENDING WEST FROM GREAT
LAKES LOW ACROSS KANSAS WITH BEST MOISTURE (14 C DEW POINTS) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. 18Z SFC MAP SHOWED BOUNDARY/FRONT FROM STJ SOUTHWEST
TO LBL WITH 70 F DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWING STRONG VORT MAX HEADING SOUTH OUT OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH OTHER VORT MAXES MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND
CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY BY 17Z.

OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA VORT MAX.
SCATTERED CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA SHOWING
MOISTURE WAITING FOR A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM. BEST INSTABILITY
(CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA WHERE BOUNDARY HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH. HARD TO RULE OUT POPS
ANYWHERE THOUGH WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE CWA. IN
TERMS OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWS, BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM, BUT
WITH STEERING FLOW AT OR ABOVE 20KTS AND FF GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND
2.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST, WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH. GUIDANCE LOWS
SEEM REASONABLE.

BOUNDARY AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY MORNING. CANT QUITE RULE OUT RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY IF WYOMING VORT MAY PASSES OVER AROUND THIS
TIME AND WILL KEEP SMALL POPS INTACT HERE. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
WEST AND NORTH AND LOW SINKING SOUTH, WEAK CAA DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW. WARMEST AIR TO STAY
AGAINST THE ROCKIES AND EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST WITH
COOLEST TEMPS IN NORTH. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS DRY OUT INTO THE MID
50S CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SHOULD LET LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY WITH NEAR NEUTRAL TEMP
ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW. ETA AND AVN HINTING AT A WEAK VORT MAX
COMING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AROUND 00Z. WONT GET EXCITED WITH THIS
FEATURE THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

TODAY/S MRF RUN FOLLOWS THE SAME PROGRESSION IT HAS SHOWN FOR THE
PAST 3 DAYS, TO RETROGRADE UPPER 4-CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST.  UKMET AND (OLD) ECMWF BOTH BUILD THE
RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MRF.  NCEP PMDEPD
DISCUSSED THIS, AND SEEMS TO AGREE WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST
AVN AND YESTERDAY/S MRF.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WARM UP OF DDC
CWA, AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.  ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE THAT
ROUNDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WOULD SURELY KICK OFF
SOME CONVECTION, BUT NO SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY IDENTIFIABLE.  THE
ONE VORT CENTER ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF HIGH THAT ROUNDED ARIZONA THIS
AM WILL LIKELY GET EJECTED EASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION PATTERN.  INSTEAD OF INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCES,
WILL LEAVE OUT OF EXTENDED FOR NOW.  TEMPS WILL SHOW A SLOW/GRADUAL
WARM UP, WITH DAYS 6 AND 7 PERHAPS EDGING TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK IN
PARTS OF CWA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 064/087 061/086 060 21410
GCK 062/088 060/087 059 214-0
EHA 062/090 057/090 057 214-0
LBL 062/089 059/089 059 214-0
HYS 060/085 059/085 058 21300
P28 068/087 063/087 062 21620

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/BURKE