Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.  FARTHER WEST, A SPEED MAX WAS ANALYZED
AT 250 MB OVER NEVADA/UTAH IN A STRENGTHENING BELT OF UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW.  MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IT PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT MUCH CONVECTION GOING ON OVER THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME.  MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
A DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.

850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM KLBF TO KTOP.

THINK THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS.  HOWEVER,
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING STORMS IN THE
WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT.  WIDE
VARIATION IN THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
ETA/AVN BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW BIG OF A COMPLEX FORMS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL BANK ON THIS NOT BEING A
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER AND GO WITH THE WARMER FWC TEMPERATURES.

REMAINS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED TO OUR SOUTH A FEW DAYS AGO
SLOWLY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST APPROACHING THE REGION, DON'T SEE WHY WE WON'T
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME SEVERE, SIMILAR TO SPC'S SOLUTION.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY BACK TO OUR SOUTH SO WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

EXTENDED FORECAST

GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS THROUGH SUNDAY IS TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. BEING ABLE TO TIME WHICH DAYS WILL AND WILL NOT HAVE
PRECIP THIS FAR OUT ARE ALWAYS A PAIN UNDER THIS REGIME...AND THUS
KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. ALSO WITH
THIS PATTERN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOKS TO BE
THE WAY TO GO.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DEVIATE TOWARDS MONDAY. THE MRF KEEPS US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT THE ECMWF WANTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER KS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO
THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN THAT THE MRF GIVES NO INDICATION UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY THAT THE RIDGE WILL EVEN BEGIN TO HEAD EAST...WILL RULE OUT
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AND GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.

WILL ADJUST LOCAL 8 TO 10 DAY FORECAST TO -SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS- GIVEN NORMALS FOR THE 26TH THROUGH 28TH ARE 93/4 AND 68. ALSO
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WILL UP PRECIP TO THE -ABOVE NORMAL- CATEGORY.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 069/096 065/088 066 006
GCK 067/094 063/087 064 006
EHA 066/095 065/087 067 006
LBL 067/096 064/088 066 006
HYS 067/090 064/085 065 105
VP28 072/098 069/090 070 006

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/SLEIGHTER