Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2000

PCPN WILL THE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TX NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OK INTO EASTERN KS. DWPTS JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
A POOL OF 850 MB MOISTURE PRESENT FROM ROUGHLY DDC ON EAST.
THEREFORE AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO SW
KANSAS THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA. RAIN MAY EVEN BE HEAVY AT TIMES HERE BUT
GIVEN FFG GUIDANCE DO NOT THINK FFA IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WHICH APPEARS ON W/V LOOP AND
12Z ANALYSIS OVER WESTERN CO WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS WAVE OVER NW KS
BY 03Z. UPSLOPE FLOW AND WAA SHOULD ALSO ALLOW THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE ROCKIES TO CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHC FOR
PCPN ONCE AGAIN SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF CWA FOR
TONIGHT.

WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A LEE TROF TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER CO. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK BUT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. WITH W/V SHOWING SEVERAL WEAKER WAVES
UPSTREAM, IT DOES APPEAR AT THIS TIME ONE SUCH WAVE MAY WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
TSRA TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE INSTAB. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A SLT CHC
GOING FOR TUESDAY.

WEAK NORTHWEST ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NW KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS TO VARIOUS DEGREES ALSO BRING A SFC BOUNDARY
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z WED. SINCE UNABLE TO RULE OUT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY GIVEN SFC BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING WEAK
NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE KEEP AT LEAST A SLT CHC GOING BOTH PERIODS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LATEST RUN OF THE MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET.  MRF
ENSEMBLES ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILARITIES.  WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TREND OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.  WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
THE MRF MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD BRING DRYER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA.  DPROG/DT OF THE MRF IN THIS TIME PERIOD SHOWING SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN GOES BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING AND
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL
AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY.

THANKS FOR THE COORD ICT.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 067/091 069/093 069 623
GCK 066/089 067/094 067 633
EHA 068/090 066/095 066 622
LBL 068/092 066/093 066 622
HYS 065/085 067/090 067 623
P28 070/092 075/095 075 623

.DDC...NONE.

RB/GERARD