Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THRU TUESDAY.

STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 14C OVER EXTREME SW KANSAS. CONVECTION RECENTLY HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM POOL AND EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
SE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN TO
THE AREA. MEAN FLOW AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT SUGGESTED BY ETA 250 MB WND
FIELD AND PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. LESSER COVERAGE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA IS ALSO WHERE THE WARMER AIR
IS LOCATED. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH NEAR 100 CHC POPS IN THE NORTH
AND DECREASE DOWN TO 60 IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS ETA SOLUTION WITH
THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF SFC FRONT AND COOLER MID LVL TEMPS.
THIS SOLUTION APPEARS MOST REASONABLE GIVEN 3HR SFC PRES TEND OVER
SD/NE, DEPTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW VIA MCCOOK PROFILER AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. THEREFORE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS INTO NORTHERN OK BY 12Z MON AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALONE PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR TS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AM OPTING TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.

WILL KEEP A SLT CHC GOING ON TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO TRY AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELY
HOOD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OVER THE AREA
COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AM OPTING TO KEEP
SLT CHC GOING FOR TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z MRF RUN IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IN RETROGRESSING THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO NEAR 110 WEST BY
22 JULY WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES
ONCE AGAIN. THE NET RESULT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SEMI-PERMANENT BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OOZING SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE ON TUESDAY, BUT A SECOND
SURGE OF COOL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN COOL UPSLOPE FLOW BY FRIDAY. THE
CURRENT EXTENDED WILL BE MODIFIED TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
EXISTS ALMOST EVERY DAY.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC j069/087 067/089 067 845
GCK 068/087 066/089 067 845
EHA 067/085 068/090 066 766
LBL 068/084 068/089 066 766
HYS 068/086 066/088 068 +44
P28 072/086 070/091 070 866

.DDC...NONE.

RB/01