Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2000

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS POPS AND TEMPS.  VERY HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN EASTERN CWA A SECONDARY CONCERN.

07Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
MANHATTAN, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG LEE SLOPES OF
ROCKIES.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY CONVECTION IN PANHANDLE/SW
KS TIP EVIDENT FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARCHING SE TO EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF TX PANHANDLE AN THEN BACK SW INTO SOUTHWEST PART OF TX
PANHANDLE.  THINK WITH TIME, THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND
SOME NORTHEASTWARD, AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS PARTS OF S AND W CWA.

00Z MODEL COMPARISON SHOWED NGM AND ETA MUCH BETTER INITIALIZED
THAN AVN.  RUC WAS DEAD ON WITH LOCATION OF 500MB HEIGHT CENTER
OVER NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

12/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED +35C POCKET OF HOT AIR AT 850MB
OVER WESTERN COLORADO, WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION OF THIS WARM POCKET.
HOWEVER, A SIMILAR WARM POCKET OF +16C AIR AT 700MB INDICATES A
SLIGHT EASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARMEST AIR.  THIS SHOULD HAVE DUEL
EDGE SWORD AFFECT OF DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND ALSO
PROVIDING MORE A CAP.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 95 SHOULD BE REACHED
OVER MOST OF CWA BY LATE IN DAY.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY, AND
OTHER LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES, WILL HAVE POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS /50/ IN SOUTHWEST DUE TO VORT
MAX CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP CROSSING NORTH THROUGH
ARIZONA.  WILL GO CLOSER TO FWC IN DDC/HYS AND P28 AREAS.  FOR
TEMPS, WILL GO WITH NEARER TO THE WARMER MAV/MEX TEMPS THAN FWC.
FWC WAS 5 TO 7 DEGREES TOO COOL FOR YESTERDAY/S MAX TEMPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

GOING EXTENDED LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 097/068 096/070 099 232
GCK 096/067 096/069 100 232
EHA 095/065 096/068 100 453
LBL 094/065 097/071 099 453
HYS 099/070 100/072 101 122
P28 099/073 098/075 101 322

.DDC...NONE.

BURKhE/POAGE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-130500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2000

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SEVERE STORM OR TWO
AFTER 6 PM CDT TODAY, SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO SUBLETTE
TO MEADE.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN SIZE.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS, LEFTOVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORMED OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.  AS SURFACE CONDITIONS HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
90S, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ANY OF THESE
BOUNDARIES.  THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS ONLY SLIGHT.  HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE AREA WITH THE MOST
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

BURKE