Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2000

MAIN CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE THUNDERSTORM POPS AND TEMPS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEST TO
THE NORTHERN CWA AND THEN TO THE PALMER DIVIDE OF COLORADO. WITH CU
FIRMING UP ALONG THIS AXIS, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST. THIS WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN
CWA IN LINE FOR THUNDER, SO WILL PLAN TO UP THE POPS TO 60 THIS
GROUP. WILL PLAN TO SHOTGUN 20/30 POPS ELSEWHERE, HOWEVER THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

WITH THUNDERSTORMS GOING NORTH OF COLD FRONT, ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HELP TO MOVE COLD FRONT SOUTH. AS A RESULT, I WILL PLAN TO GO
COOLER FOR TEMPS TOMORROW. ALSO, WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONT, THE CWA COULD SEE A ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHTTIME
THUNDER. THEREFORE, I WILL PLAN TO SHOTGUN 40 POPS EVERYWHERE FOR
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAYS END. HAVE TO THINK THAT FRONT WILL BE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. UPSHOT CONCERNING THIS IS THAT I
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE POST
FRONTAL THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SIDE NOTE TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION IS THAT I HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN A NEARLY
TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS POINT, I WONT HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE
ZONES AND LET THE MIDSHIFT CHEW ON THIS THOUGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ALL EXTENDED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A HUGE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CANADIAN
FINALLY FALLING INTO LINE WITH THE REST ON THIS SOLUTION. MRF
ENSEMBLES ALL CENTER ON THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. GIVEN THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH MONDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE CHANCE OF SOME COOLER AIR DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK BUT KNOWING IF, WHEN OR
WHERE IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL THUS LEAVE THE FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/089 064/086 064 344
GCK 067/088 063/085 063 344
EHA 065/088 061/085 062 344
LBL 069/090 065/087 066 344
HYS 064/085 061/083 062 644
P28 073/091 068/087 068 244

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON/JOHNSON