Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES TONIGHT ARE AREAL EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CHANCE OF SEVERE. THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL VORT CENTERS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. ONE WITH
SUBTROPICAL FLOW COMING INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES, ANOTHER IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET MOVING INTO NERN COLORADO AND THE LARGEST ONE
CUTTING ACROSS NEBRASKA. THINK THE VORT IN NERN CO TO BRING US ARE
CHANCE OF THUNDER TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO A POOR JOB PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL JUICE ON THE LOOSE WITH 10C H85
DEWPOINTS INTO ERN COLORADO/WRN KS AND 60 SFC DEWPOINTS RUNNING UP
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. VORT MAXES WILL DRAG A BOUNDARY DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE THE BEST FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTH CWA. COOLER AIRMASS NOTED TRYING TO MOVE EAST AS H85 WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS AHEAD OF VORT. THIS AIR IS A LITTLE MORE
STABLE FROM GCK TO THE EAST. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE FOR DODGE
GROUP BUT WILL CONT WITH SEVERE IN WEST WHERE BEST THERMODYNAMICS
ARE COMING TOGETHER. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 9700 FT AGL SO
SOME LARGE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50 POPS
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR NORTH WITH 60 POP.

FOR FRIDAY SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES AROUND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. WILL CONT WITH A 30 POP TO COVER. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STILL OVHD WITH FCST LIFTED INDEXES RUNNING FROM -4 TO
-6. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN MID 80S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY H5 RIDGING CONTINUES WITH JET DYNAMICS
MOVING AWAY FROM REGION. WITH WEAKER FLOW WILL GO WITH DRY FCST.
TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS WARM FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WARMEST IN WEST AND COOLEST IN THE EAST.
GUID LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH SE SFC WINDS AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON TRACK TO BUILD OVERHEAD BY
MONDAY. VERY WARM TEMPS TO RESULT WITH 7H TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
CELSIUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA IN
THE TROPICAL FEED WILL BRING A SLIGHT THREAT FOR PRECIP DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE SO
MENTION OF POPS SEEMS INAPPROPRIATE. FOR THE EARLY PERIODS, ALL
MODELS MOVE VORT MAX ALONG EXTREME SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST SLOWLY
NORTHEAST UNTIL IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FASTER FLOW AND BRINGS IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SPEED AND LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY IN QUESTION, WILL KEEP GOING POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INTACT. FOR TEMPS, WILL RAISE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPS A BIT AND BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 062/085 066/090 067 431
GCK 061/084 064/092 066 431
EHA 062/085 062/095 065 531
LBL 062/085 063/092 065 531
HYS 060/083 064/090 065 621
P28 064/085 067/091 071 331

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/COLEMAN/POAGE