Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS.

***WILL ADJUST FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO FILL IN THE HOLE BETWEEN ICT AND
GLD/S AREA***

AT 17Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHTEAST COLORADO INTO FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS REACHING THE DDC AREA TOWARDS
26/06Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BASED UPON THE 25/12Z SOUNDING AT
DDC...THE FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AIR WITH 4400 J/KG ABOVE THE
LFC...AN LI OF -11 AND PRECIP H20 OF 1.22 IN. ALSO SHOWING UP THIS
MORNING AT 250 MB IS A 70 KT JET STREAK OVER UTAH AND COLORADO. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS STREAK SHOULD BE CLOSE TO BEING
DIRECTLY OVER KANSAS AT THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF THE FROPA. ALSO...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA HAS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF
DDC. THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BE WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLIDE. GIVEN THIS
SCENERIO WILL KEEP WITH SIMILAR POPS TO THOSE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
ALSO WILL CONTINUE FFA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. JUST HOW
FAR IS STILL A MATTER OF QUESTION THOUGH. LINGERING PRECIP NORTH OF
THE FRONT WOULD WARRENT A CHANCE OF POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF OF THE CWFA. UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING
FOR TOMORROW. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST ARE A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS AGREE UPON BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CARRY THE
CHANCES OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME IN THE WEST AND
KEEP THE WORDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVEN THE COOL UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE.

ON TUESDAY THE ZONAL FLOW AT 5H SHOULD HELP TO START FORMING ANOTHER
LEE TROUGH WHICH WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
GIVEN THIS AND ADDITIONAL VORT CENTERS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ROCKIES...WILL PUT CHANCE OF STORMS IN MY WESTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/076 057/082 064 +3-
GCK 055/076 055/083 063 +31
EHA 057/077 057/086 065 722
LBL 060/077 059/084 064 722
HYS 057/073 055/079 060 +1-
P28 065/077 063/083 067 +4-

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT KSZ030-031-045-046-
^065-066-079>081-089>090.

SLEIGHTER/REITER