Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

VORT CENTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS COLORADO BY LATE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING CONCURRENT
TO THE LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AS EVIDENT BY UPPER 30S DEW
POINTS AT KTAD AND UPPER 50S AT KLAA AT 17Z. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
IN WESTERN KANSAS DEW POINTS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 60S WITH UPPER 50S
FAR SOUTHWEST AND AROUND 70 FAR SOUTHEAST. THE BEST CAP TODAY IS
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. VIA THE MORNING
UPPER AIR CHARTS...WESTERN KANSAS IS RECEIVING WEAK CAA AT 8H AND
NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 7H. ABUNDANCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS MAY NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH EXCEPT
CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN
MOVING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOW FAR EAST IS THE BIG
QUESTION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING WAVE APPEARS
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY/S...WILL EXPECT STORMS TO TRAVEL FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THAN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. WILL BUMP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE WEST AND KEEP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND THUS HELP LOW TEMPS IN THE FAR WEST BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE MODELS WITH THE BEST
RESOLUTION...NGM/ETA...DO BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST IN MY FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...THUS WILL GO WITH
LOWS THERE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY/S WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AS TRICKY AS TODAY/S. A LOT WILL
DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH LINGERING PRECIP MIGHT BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AT SUNRISE TO ACCOMMODATE HIGHER POPS IN ONE AREA OR ANOTHER
JUST BASED UPON THAT. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE INCREASING
8H AND 7H TEMPS ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA...SO SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION MAY BE HARDER TO ESTABLISH. THE SAME GENERAL FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT IF ANY
AND TIMING OF ANY UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY PLACE A
20 POP IN THE EAST TO ACCOMMODATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING
MORNING PRECIP IN THAT AREA...AND IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OCCURS
TOMORROW...THIS AREA WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN THE CAP WOULD
BE THE WEAKEST AND DEW POINT VALUES THE GREATEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE THROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN COUCHED IN THAT AREA
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE AVERAGE
FORECAST WOULD PLACE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MY NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 25/12Z. HOWEVER...LIKE IN TIMES PAST...AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
RAIN WILL HELP THE FRONT PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THIS. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE A WIND SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT MY FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. A BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR...THUS THE TRUE COLD
FRONT...LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT TO END UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD BAROCLINICITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER KANSAS. RAINFALL
CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO SEEM GOOD AND WILL LIKELY GO WITH LIKELY
WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AT KEEPING THE HUDSON BAY AND
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOWS IN PLACE AS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS HIGH
STRUGGLES TO BUILD IN. WITH RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD, HARD
TO RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK
WAVES LIKELY PASSING OVERTOP OF MOIST UPSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LITTLE CAPPING. WILL THUS RETURN PRECIP TO MONDAY PERIOD AND KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL EASE OFF ON THE WARMUP. SOUTHWESTERN
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY THURSDAY AND CURRENT WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 067/095 064/080 058 5101
GCK 065/095 063/080 057 503
EHA 055/095 060/085 057 711
LBL 065/095 065/084 058 501
HYS 068/095 065/077 053 514
P28 071/096 073/087 062 421

.DDC...NONE.

SLEIGHTER/POAGE