Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH ALL PERIODS.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED 120M HEIGHT RISES OVER MINNESOTA PUSHING
STRONG ONTARIO WAVE OUT OF THE PLAINS. WEAKER WAVE WAS RIDING ALONG
US/CANADA BORDER WITH LINGERING VORT MAX AROUND NORTHERN BAJA. 700
MB TEMPS WERE BELOW 10C OVER MUCH OF KANSAS WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
MID TEENS OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. VERY MOIST 850 MB LEVEL WITH MID
TEENS C FROM DDC SOUTH THROUGH PANHANDLES INTO RED RIVER. 18Z SFC
MAP CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA DEW
POINTS AROUND 70F WITH LEE TROF BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG FRONT
RANGE.

AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE VIA GOOD MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAP. FORCING MECHANISM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY INGREDIENT
MISSING FOR CONVECTION. STORMS ALREADY FIRING ALONG SFC TROF WHERE
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LARGE CU FIELD IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET IS NOSING IN AND DEW
POINT DISCONTINUITY HAS DEVELOPED. THINK CONVECTION TO THE WEST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH EAST TO THE BORDER THIS EVENING WHERE JUICE
BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SUGGESTS GOING WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST AND LOWEST EAST. WILL GO WITH SIMILAR ORIENTATION
WITH LOWS BASED ON COVERAGE OF LIKELY RAIN COOLED AIR AND DEW POINT
LEVELS.

MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY WITH LEE TROF/DRY LINE DEEPENING.
AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUICY WITH NEAR 3K J/KG CAPE EAST OF
DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP OVER WESTERN CWA BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS VORT MAX TO ENTER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z AND
MAY HELP PUSH DRYLINE TO NEAR DDC. FORCING MECHANISMS DONT APPEAR
TO BE LACKING HOWEVER CAP STRENGTH IS A BIT STRONGER. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO GET CONVECTION ROLLING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
INTRODUCE 20 POP FOR LATE FRIDAY AND 30 POP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE TODAYS LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN WEST
WHERE DRYER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE.

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST PREFRONTAL TROF WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SHOULD HAVE VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL GO AHEAD WITH BREEZY WORDING FOR ALL
BUT WESTERN COUNTIES.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

BIGGEST PROBLEM OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE CANADIAN
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE AVERAGE OF THE MRF /THE QUICKEST
SOLUTION/ AND THE ECMWF /THE SLOWEST SOLUTION/. BUT NONE OF THESE
MODELS APPEARS TO BE DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER BY MORE THAN 12
HOURS. THEREFORE...THE GOING THINKING OF A LATE SATURDAY FROPA
APPEARS REASONABLE. MRF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF KANSAS...BUT WITH GOOD
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW IN KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TSRA CHANCES
ACROSS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE CANADIAN...ECMWF AND MRF ALL AGREE
UPON A NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE QUICKLY EXITING COLD FRONT. SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY
ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW CLOUDS FORM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO
UPSLOPE WINDS FORMED BY THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.  FOR
NOW...I WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH CLOUDS AND MENTION JUST A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY.

MONDAY THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL HELP
TO BEGIN TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...A RETURN TO HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPS.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MRF KEEPS MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT LEAST ON TUESDAY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS SHOW THAT PRECIP COULD BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN KANSAS...AND NEAR THE SURFACE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOIST. THUS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
STORMS FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/093 068/094 065 523
GCK 066/094 065/095 063 523
EHA 064/097 062/097 064 633
LBL 066/096 065/097 065 523
HYS 066/095 064/095 061 423
P28 070/093 070/094 068 423

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/SLEIGHTER