Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2000

WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE. DEW PTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE DCA
AREA. MEANWHILE WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LINEAR
INTERPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NGM IS MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN...
WHILE THE ETA AND AVN ARE CLOSER BUT STILL A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH.

THE ETA AND AVN BOTH BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. WITH HI
DEW PTS AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL EXPAND A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UNSTABLE
AIR...SO WILL GO WITH HI CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON... LIKELY CENTRAL... AND CATEGORICAL NORTH. WILL
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE MODEL'S SFC WAVE TRACK
INDICATES THAT A LITTLE INSTABILITY WOULD WORK NORTH INTO PA. ETA
500 MB WINDS REACH 55 KTS SO GUSTY WINDS ARE A POSSIBLITY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM... BUT
INSTABILITIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE OUTBREAK. ETA LI'S BARELY FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL GO
ABOVE FWC TMPS IN THE LOWER SUSQ TODAY...AND NEAR THE FWC'S
ELSEWHERE.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE SFC WAVE
TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
LATE TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH OF PA.

NEXT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD PA ON THURSDAY. SCENARIO LOOKS
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS THE NORTH AND JUST CHC
POPS SOUTH. AGAIN WILL MENTION SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE ALLOWS A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA. WILL
AGAIN SEE A PRETTY LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS PA...QUITE WARM ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND COOL OVER THE NW. MID-LVL WINDS AGAIN IN THE 40 TO
55 KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS FOR STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...
AGAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

COLD AIR COMES IN ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
ADD MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS ON SUNDAY A CATEGORY AS MODELS
INDICATE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE AT LEAST AS COLD AS SATURDAY.

.CTP...NONE.

MSE