Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EST MON FEB 14 2000

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVLOPED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST.
EXPECT THIS MOTION TO CONTINUE WHICH MEANS IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN COOLING TEMPERATURES A BIT. A
MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD. IN THE SHORT TERM PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

CWF...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS
GRANTED GA WATERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL INITIALIZE SW AND
SHIFT WINDS TO NW BY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF A BIT LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NE TUE AS HIGH BUILDS OFF THE COAST TO
THE N OF THE WATERS. WILL WEAKEN FRTHR AND SHIFT TO SE TUE NIGHT AND
S WED. SEAS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
FETCH LIMITED NW THEN CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
CHS 44/64 43/72 1000     SAV 43/66 40/74 0000
CHL 49/61 48/68 1000     NBC 45/64 43/72 1000

.CHS...
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM.

/SLF

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>050-142300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST MON FEB 14 2000

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HAVE USED UP MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TO THE WEST
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HEATING TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE AGAIN. THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REFORM. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO ALLOW STORMS TO REDEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OCCURRING AGAIN IN SOUTH
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR THEY COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREAT.

ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.