Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT THU JUL 27 2000

MOISTURE DID NOT SCOUR OUT AS MUCH AS THOUGHT YESTERDAY...SO
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY.  LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES...BUT SOME CIN TOO.  EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRONT
RANGE CONVECTION AND/OR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER LOGAN/WASHINGTON
COUNTIES TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TAP INSTABILITY AND SPARK A COUPLE
BIG STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK SURGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS
SHOULD HELP PUSH A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE
FRONT RANGE.  WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS WITH EAST/NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...HIGHER P.W. VALUES...AND STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
BREAK CAP.  WIND SHEAR STILL WEAK...SO PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.  PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY BUT INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LOWER
SO ONLY 20% POPS FOR THE MOST PART.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS USUALLY FAIRLY
STABLE.  HOWEVER...MRF KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS.

BARJENBRUCH

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-272200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
303 PM MDT THU JULY 27 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE THAN YESTERDAY...AND SOME
RAINFALL WILL REACH THE GROUND.  BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD
REACH 50 MPH.  FURTHER EAST IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM.  SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
WELD...LOGAN...MORGAN...PHILLIPS...SEDGWICK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

KLEYLA