Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
230 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2000

...CORRECTION FOR MISSING WORDS...

SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY BIG CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN OVR MUCH OF WRN
CONUS NEXT SVRL DAYS AS HOT UPR LVL RIDGE ANCHORED OVR THE SRN GREAT
PLAINS BEGINS ITS SLOW EWRD MIGRATION.  100-120KT JET CARVING A
SHARP MID/UPR TROF ALG THE PAC NW COAST FINALLY APRS STG ENOUGH TO
KICK RIDGE OUT.  MDLS SHOW DIGGING PAC NW TROF PHASING WITH BROAD
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF SRN CA COAST NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  AS LONG WV
W COAST TROF MOVS ONSHORE LOOK FOR HTS TO FALL AND FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SWLY OVR THE RCKY MTN RGN FRI AND BEYOND.

CLOSE TO HOME...MID-LVL VORT LOBE PASSING OVR CNTRL/NERN CO ATTM
PROGD TO BE OVR NE PANHANDLE BY THIS EVE AS MOIST ANTICYCLONIC
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS.  TSTMS FIRING JUST E OF DEN METRO AREA AND OVR
THE MONUMENT RIDGE ATTM WILL DRIFT NEWRD OVR NERN CORNER OF STATE BY
MID/LATE EVE.  OVRNGT SHOULD SEE SKIES CLR WITH MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE
ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT MOVG UP FM THE FOUR CORNERS RGN.  HAIL AND LCLLY
HVY RAIN MAIN THREAT FM STORMS REST OF THIS AFTN AND ERLY THIS EVE.
SINCE CAPES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS DRIFTING OFF MONUMENT
RIDGE COULD LAY DOWN A SWATH OF SML HAIL SVRL INCHES DEEP AND
RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES.  OVRALL...WILL GO WITH 30-50 PCT
POPS THIS EVE.

ON FRI MDLS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV ROUNDING BOTTOM OF W COAST TROF
DURING THE DAY AND EJECTING NEWRD OVR NERN CO FRI NGT.  MID-LVLS
JUICE UP AGAIN OVR CWA IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV WITH LAPSE RATES
STEEPING ON THE PLNS DURING THE AFTN.  LOW POPS 2ND AND 3RD PDS
GIVEN BY MOS PROBABLY DUE TO SWLY SFC-7H WNDS ON THE GRIDS.  FOR NOW
SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FM THESE NUMBERS.

LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...MDLS SHOW DRYING WITH STG MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE
AND 30-45KT W-SWLY 700-500 MB WNDS OVR THE FNT RNG.  TIGHT DOWNSLOPE
PRES GRADIENT ALSO IN PLACE IN LEE OF FNT RNG SAT.  SEE GUSTY W-SWLY
WINDS IN AND NR FRNT RNG FTHLS FIRST PART OF THE DAY.  OVRALL SHOULD
SEE A DRIER...SLGTLY WARMER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPTS ON THE PLNS.

OUTLOOK PD SUN THRU TUE...COLD UPR LVL TROF PROGD TO HANG BACK OVR
THE GREAT BASIN AND PAC NW KPG COLORADO UNDER WARM SWLY FLOW.
HWVR...WK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY BE ALL THATS
NEEDED TO KP AFTN/EVE TSTMS IN THE FCST...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN
SUN AND TUE AS PER THE MRF.  BAKER

DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-312200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
200 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS APPROACHING THE AREA...
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAD CONVERGED.  HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE WIND PROFILE IN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS.  SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LESZCYNSKI