Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT MON AUG 21 2000

COOL STABLE AMS HAS MOVED INTO THE NERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT SLIPPED ACRS THE CWA ERLY THIS MRNG.  MOST OF THE TSTMS THIS
AFTN HAVE DVLPD IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...AHD OF A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING INTO SWRN CO ERLY THIS AFTN.  THIS FTR
SHUD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NERN CO 00-02Z TIME FRAME.  FCST SOUNDINGS
WITH 83/50 T/TD YIELDING CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WTR
VALUES NEAR AN INCH.  MOST THE STORM WL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.  A FEW HOWEVER CUD BECOME SVR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  GUD INSTBY COUPLED WITH UPR LVL FRCG ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROF SHUD ALLOW TSTMS TO SURVIVE ONCE THEY MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING.  SCT POPS THIS EVENING LUK GOOD SO WL LEAVE
THINGS AS IS THIS EVNG.  FOR TUE...BETTER HEATING IN THE AFTN
COUPLED WITH SOME MID LVL MSTR OVHD SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME WDLY SCT
AFTN AND EVNG TSTMS.  NO SHORT WAVES EVIDENT TO AID IN TSTM DVLPMNT
FOR TUE.  UPR RIDGE STGR AS IT CENTERS ITSELF OVR CO WED INTO THU.
AVN HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TUE EVNG ...BUT ETA AND NGM
IGNORE SUCH A FTR.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS ONE.  DRIER
NLY FLO ALF EVIDENT ON WED WITH STGR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE.  THEREFORE WL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE AT THAT TIME.  IN THE
EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANGE FM DAY TO DAY WITH UPR LVL RIDGE THE
PREVAILING INFLUENCE.  SLGT CHC OF TSTMS EACH DAY STILL THE GOING
FCST.  MRF BRINGS NEXT COLD FRONT INTO NERN CO LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY
AS NEXT TROF MOVES ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES... THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
IMPACT THE EXTENDED PD UNTIL SUNDAY.  COOPER

COZ030-032>050-212000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1020 AM MDT MON AUG 21 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  COOLER AIR MOVED INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING...AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO HOLDING BACK THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.  WHILE THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BE
ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.  IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR THEM TO TAP.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

GIMMESTAD

COZ030-032>050-212200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
200 PM MDT MON AUG 21 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING ON THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE FIRST STORMS MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL EVENTUALLY
WARM ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO SURVIVE ON THE PLAINS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.  WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE
PLAINS WILL BE MAR7GINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ONE OR TWO OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GIMMESTAD