Severe Thunderstorm Warning 513, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
258 PM CST WED NOV 08 2000

ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF LA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD.  SFC LOW
WILL APPROACH THE EXTREME NW SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY 6AM THU WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE AL/MS LINE.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...
850 LOW LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER JET
APPROACHING 100 KNOTS.  VERY IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL MOTION AND SHEAR
AXIS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN THE ERN SECTIONS EARLY ON THURSDAY.  SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
OUTLOOKED TNGT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE ZONES AS A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS TNGT AND THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...THEN A SHIFT TO COLDER AND DRIER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HSV 64/65/38/56 +8-0   BHM 65/67/40/60 +8-0   MGM 68/70/42/65 +8-0

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>038-040>050-090600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CST WED NOV 08 2000

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.  KEEP AWARE
OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO MUCH OF THE STATE.
AS STRONGER DYNAMICS AND INCREASED INSTABILITY APPROACH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  WITH
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
LINES...WITH STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ALABAMA...
AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.