Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
251 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2000

MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING...MAINLY PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND LESS SIGNIFICANTLY...
THE RETURN OF COLD AIR OVER THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS.  MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES...SO WILL FOCUS ON EVENTS.

PRECIP RETURNING ALREADY..WITH ONE AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP IN A
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH...AND THEN THE FRONT.  INSTABILITY PEAKS
ACROSS BHM AREA AGAIN AT 12Z...GRADUALLY STABILIZES BY 18Z...THEN
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  TODAYS FORECAST THEN BECOMES ONE OF TIMING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE...AND CONCERN FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF POTENTIAL
SEVERE...AS REFLECTED BY SPC WITH SLIGHT RISK.

REGARDING THREAT OF SEVERE...INSTABILITY/UVV AXIS ROUGHLY MGM TO
ATL/NORTH GEORGIA MIDDAY.  BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TEAMS UP WITH MOISTURE AND
JET DYNAMICS.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE FEEL OF COLDEST TEMPS
IN A FEW WEEKS.  BREEZES SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE UNDER
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WORSE.  BELIEVE BEST CHANCE
FOR FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WARM
ALOFT SLIGHTLY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BEAR WATCHING.
PERHAPS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO FAR.

OTHERWISE...IN THE EXTENDED...ONLY WORKING WITH THE MRF TONIGHT.
WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS MODEL HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING
LAST 3 DAYS.

PRELIMINARIES SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  81

HSV 058/033 052/031 058 9100
BHM 064/034 057/031 062 +100
MGM 074/037 058/034 065 8100

.BHM...FLASH FLOOD WARNING JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 11AM...