Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2000

PROBLEM TODAY IS WHEN/WHERE SVR WX THREAT WL BE. GGW SOUNDING WAS
NOT IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...BUT BIS AND ABR QUITE UNSTABLE WI
CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF 87 IN BIS AND 90 AT ABR. BIS TEMP IN THE LOWER
80S AND ABR IN THE MID 80S ATTM. MAY NOT HIT THIS LOW LEVEL CAP THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER...SHARP SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SFC LOW IN ERN WY
ACROSS S CNTRL ND AND INTO GFK AREA. GOOD STRONG SLY FLOW BRINGING
IN HIGHER DWPTS IN THE 60S S AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY. LATER THIS EVE
A GOOD LLJ SETS UP IN ERN DAKS/MN/IA. TSTMS MAY FIRE IN VCNTY OF SFC
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE MUST WAIT FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING IN
FROM THE SW TONIGHT. ACCORDING TO ETA...PCPN WL OCCUR IN NRN ND THIS
MORN AND AFT WI H5 VORTICITY AND THIS HAS HAPPENED. NEXT PIECE OF H5
ENERGY PROGGED TO ENTER SWRN ND THIS EVE WI VORT MAX JUST S OF BIS
BY 06Z. WOULD EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO BEGIN IN ERN WY/SERN MT EARLY
THIS EVE...THEN MOVE INTO SWRN ND...THEN SPREAD TO NERN ND BY 12Z
TUE AND BECOME AN OVERNIGHT MCS FOR ERN HALF OF ND. WL MENTION
POSSIBLY SEVERE TON FOR ALL BUT THE NWRN COUNTIES.

SFC LOW IN NERN ND TUE MORN. H5 AND H7 LOWS OVER N CNTRL ND WI LOTS
OF VORTICITY PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS TUE AND TUE NT TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO CWA. ON
WED...SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH NWLY FLOW TO SET OFF SCT SHOWERS. COOLER WX FROM TUE THROUGH
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ND UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE H5 LOW.

.BIS...NONE.
VINING