Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325M CDT FRI AUG 4 2000

PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS
EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS. TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM THE AVN MODEL WAS USED
DUE TO THE INITIALIZATION STATUS. ETA IS THE ODD MODEL OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. WITH
THE TRIGGERING OF THE STORMS ALONG THE WARM/COLD FRONTS. CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER AND THE
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MT. AVN SHOWS THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SD TO ND BY LATE AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT MSAS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF -8 LI ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. EXPECTING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH GOOD
SHEAR PROFILES HINTS AT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES TO THE EAST...EXPECTING TO SEE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL...K-INDEX >35.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED. COOLING OF THE TEMPS
ALOFT WILL CAUSE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT. SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AVN SHOWS SOME RIPPLES IN THE HEIGHTS BOTH IN THE MID
AND UPPER ATMOS. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

EXTENDED...SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON LOOKS DRY UNDER THE AFFECTS OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TUES MORNING MRF SHOWS A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASK/MAN. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUES AND WED WITH ITS PASSAGE.

.BIS...NONE.

NED

NDZ001-009-017-050030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILLISTON ND
647 PM CDT (547 PM MDT) FRI AUG 4 2000

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 700 PM CDT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND PLENTYWOOD MONTANA...TO AROUND GLENDIVE MONTANA WILL BE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE GRENORA AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IF DARK CLOUDS APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY OFF THE TELEPHONE IF LIGHTNING IF PRESENT.

RUSSELL

N

NDZ001-009-017-050030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILLISTON ND
701 PM CDT (601 PM MDT) FRI AUG 4 2000

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 700 PM CDT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND PLENTYWOOD MONTANA...TO AROUND GLENDIVE MONTANA WILL BE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE GRENORA  AND FORTUNA AREAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IF DARK CLOUDS APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY OFF THE TELEPHONE IF LIGHTNING IF PRESENT.

N

NDZ001-009-017-050030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILLISTON ND
705 PM CDT (600 PM MDT) FRI AUG 4 2000

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 700 PM CDT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND PLENTYWOOD MONTANA...TO AROUND GLENDIVE MONTANA WILL BE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE GRENORA  AND FORTUNA AREAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IF DARK CLOUDS APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY OFF THE TELEPHONE IF LIGHTNING IF PRESENT.

MR
N