Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 AM CDT THU JUN 8 2000

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE...CONVECTION CHANCES AND FAVORED LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE CAP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND
MID LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE VORT LOBE IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...AND WILL BE EAST OF A JMS/DVL LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. WITH
THE 700 MB 14 DEGREE LINE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE
THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO THE NORTHERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AGAIN THE 700 MB
THERMAL CAP WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...INHIBITING CONVECTION. THE NEXT
IMPULSE ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AND THIS TIME THE THERMAL CAP HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST EXPOSING THE CWA TO CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL DEPRESS THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY IN
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER BY EVENING. WITH IMPRESSIVE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
DEGREES C PROGGED AND +60 DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL
NEVERTHELESS BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CAP...IF IT DOES IT
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SPC MUST FEEL THE CAP
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD...AS IT HAS KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK OUT
OF THE STATE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY WE WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE WOODS YET...WITH THE BOUNDARY
STILL RUNNING FROM MOBRIDGE THROUGH GRAND FORKS AND THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE THERMAL CAP DEPRESSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL PROGGED AT 60 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA.

IN THE NEAR TERM SEVERE CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE CAP IS NOW IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ADVANCE TO THE MINOT AREA BY DAYBREAK.

.BIS...NONE.
RS LEBLANG

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-081600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT THU JUN 8 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER A VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN EASTERN MONTANA
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE MAY BECOME SEVERE
EARLY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
WITH VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIR TO ITS SOUTH. THE FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF STRONG THERMAL CAPPING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE.

WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATED FORECASTS.

RS LEBLANG