Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

COLD FRONT CROSSING AREA ATTM AS LOW PRES MOVES NE ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. AREA OF RAIN/TSRA NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN PART OF FA WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY EWD. LINE OF TSRA HAS BEEN WEAKING A LITTLE AS IT MOVES EWD
BUT WILL CONT TO POSE SVR THREAT. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME
TREES DOWN. LINE WILL ALSO BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS IT CONTINUES
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OUR FA. SOME LIGHT/MOD SHRA ALSO BREAKING OUT AHD
OF THIS LINE. NORTHERN PART OF FA PROGGED BY MODELS FOR HEAVIEST QPF
THRU THIS EVENING. BREAKS IN CLDS ACROSS SRN TIER AND NE PA EARLIER
ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABALIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. MSAS LI OF AROUND
-4 EARLY THIS AFT.

FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH...MAKING IT ABT AS FAR S AS THE
MAXON-DIXON LN BEFORE STALLING OUT.  ADDTNL S/WV ENERGY RIDING EWD
ACRS PA OVRNT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFTING FOR MORE SHWRS...MOSTLY
SRN SXNS OF THE FA.  ALTHO MODELS AGREE ON GIVING RAIN TO THIS PART
OF FA...THEY DISAGREE ON AMT AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP DUE TO
SMALL DIFFS IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SFC WAVES. ETA AND AVN
CLEAR MOST OF HEAVIER RAIN OUT OF OUR PA ZONES FRIDAY EVENING WHILE
THE NGM STALLS SFC LOW ACROSS W VA AND PRODUCES QPF BULLSEYE OVER PA
THRU SAT MORN. WILL COMPROMISE ON POPS AND LEAN TWD A LOWER VALUE
FOR LATER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SAT.

ALSO FOR FRI AND SAT...ETA/NGM STILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
PORTION OF FA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT THEY NOW WANT TO
BRING A RETURN OF THE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SAT. AVN
BASICALLY HANGS ONTO THE MOISTURE THRU THE PD.

.BGM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TNT FOR MUCH DOF CNY AND PA ZNS 38/39.

JML

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-182100-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1113 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY WARM...
MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HORNELL TO ELMIRA...BINGHAMTON AND
WALTON...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MOST UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. ALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL
ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO CAUSE
PROBLEMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...KEEP AN EYE TO
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK QUICK SHELTER SHOULD STORMS
APPROACH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.  INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
FROM THE BINGHAMTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BGM.

BREWSTER