Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EST THU MAR 9 2000

CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WAVES OF MAINLY MID/HI LVL CLDS CROSSING NY/PA
ATTM...WITH NEAREST PCPN WELL NW OF THE FA UP NEAR COLD FRNTL BNDRY
DRAPED ACRS THE NRN LKS RGN AND SRN CAN.  XPCT THIS GENERAL SCENARIO TO
HOLD THRU ABT MIDDAY ALLOWING A FAIR AMT OF SOLAR INSOLATION THIS MRNG.

DURG THE AFTN...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DVLPG N-S ORIENTED
PRE-FRNTL TROF AND SWEEPING THIS FEATURE EWD ACRS THE CWA IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME.  AT THE SAME TIME...WELL DEFINED S/WV TROF
SUPPORTING OCCLUDED MIDWESTERN SFC LO IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE LWR
GRT LKS WITH MID LVL COOLING/HGT FALLS STARTING TO IMPINGE ON NY/PA.
MID 50S SFC DEW PTS SURGING INTO LWR MI ATTM AND FEEL THIS TYPE OF
ENVIR CUD WELL AFFECT AT LEAST WRN PTNS OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE
DRIVEN BY LL JET.  ALL OF THIS POINTS TWDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/INCRG
INSTAB.  CONVECTION SHUD BE ABLE TO DVLP FAIRLY EASILY THIS AFTN WITH
ABV MENTIONED TROF AND VORT MAX THE MAIN TRIGGERS.  DON/T FEEL THAT
700-1100 CAPES SHOWN BY THE ETA ARE UNREASONABLE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENUF DEEP LYR SHEAR TO SUPPORT SQUALL LN DVLPMT WITH ISOLD WDMG THE MAIN
THREAT.  SPC SEEMS TO AGREE.  EVEN THO SVR THREAT IS MARGINAL...WILL
ISSUE SPS SINCE THIS CUD BE THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON.  POPS
GRADUATED FROM LKLY WRN/NRN ZNS TO CHC SE BASED MAINLY ON TIMING.  NOT
TO GET LOST IN THE SHUFFLE ARE THE VERY WARM TEMPS...SO ZNS WILL BE
HEADLINED FOR PSBL RECORDS AGN TDY.

TNT...COLD FRNT PUSHES THRU ARND MIDNIGHT NWRN ZNS AND CLOSER TO DAYBRK
IN THE CATSK/POCONOS.  MOST OF THE PCPN SHUD FALL ERLY TNT AS THE MAIN
S/WV MOVES ACRS.  AS THE COLDER AIR STARTS COMING IN AFTR 06Z...PCPN
SHUD BE TAPERING OFF...SO ANY PD OF FRZN PCPN LOOKS TO BE BRIEF.  LWRD
MIN/S A FEW DEGS FROM PREVIOUS FCST LOOKING AT QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS
JUST BEHIND THE FRNT ATTM AND ALSO TO BLEND BETTER WITH COLDER AND
PREFERRED FWC TEMPS.

FRI...LL MOIST IS SLOW TO DEPART.  IN ADDITION...ANOTHER MID LVL WV
APPCHS UPSTATE NY IN THE AFTN.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PVA/LIFT WITH
THIS SYS APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR NRN ZNS WHERE PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
N WILL IMPACT FIRST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THINK PCPN WILL BE RATHER LGT AND
SPOTTY THIS PD.  KNOCKED POPS DOWN FROM LKLY TO CHC.  ALSO NUDGED MAX
TEMPS DOWNWARD ONCE AGN.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SYS...SO
FELT IT BEST TO LEAVE EXTENDED FCST ALONE FOR THE TIME BEING.

GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR AND ACCEPTED TDY...BUT FWC/S SEEM TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON SHALLOW COLD AMS COMING IN FOR LT TNT/FRI.

WRK ZNS GONE.  FINALS WIBIS BY 345.

.BGM...NONE.

JUREWICZ

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-091608-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 AM EST THU MAR 9 2000

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY EVENING.

INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...FROM ROUGHLY HORNELL THROUGH
PENN YAN...AUBURN...AND SYRACUSE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM
HIGH WINDS.

IF THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE CERTAIN...
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.  FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS.  INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE BINGHAMTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT www.nws.noaa.gov/er/bgm.

JUREWICZ